Another 20 matches have been added to the dataset and the World Cup picture is becoming clearer. The changes since Matchday 1 are smaller than the swings seen after the opening round, but several teams have still moved significantly. Once again, the most important stories come from the underlying numbers rather than the scorelines.
Spain are the biggest movers. Their probability of reaching the final has increased from 31.7% to 35.1% after their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. Spain produced a +2.16 xGD in that match and now sit on a cumulative +3.00 xGD after combining it with the +1.90 recorded against Cape Verde. Only Germany can match that figure. Based on tournament performances alone, Spain have generated the strongest underlying numbers of any side in the competition.
England have also strengthened their position. Their probability of reaching the final has increased from 29.7% to 32.8% after the 4-2 victory over Croatia. England generated 3.20 xG while conceding only 0.70, producing one of the strongest performances of the tournament so far. Their outright win probability remains at 18.6%.
France have drifted slightly. Their probability of winning the tournament has fallen from 23.2% to 21.1%, while their chance of reaching the final has slipped from 36.5% to 34.1%. The move is driven primarily by market changes rather than anything seen on the pitch.
Argentina continue to be the most consistent recommendation across every version of the model. Victories over Algeria and Austria have left them top of Group J with six points. Their outright win probability stands at 18.6%, their chance of reaching the final is 34.1%, and their probability of reaching the semi-final is now 61.8%.
The xG Stories the Scorelines Are Hiding
Turkey have become the tournament's unluckiest side. They lost 2-0 to Australia despite winning the xG battle and then produced 2.17 xG against Paraguay's 0.32 while losing 1-0. Across two matches they have generated a cumulative xGD of +2.03 yet remain pointless and goalless.
Belgium's numbers are also far stronger than their league position suggests. They have generated 4.93 xG across two matches but scored only once. A cumulative xGD of +1.44 ranks among the best figures in the tournament despite a return of only two points.
Uruguay have two points from two draws despite producing a cumulative xGD of +2.50. Their underlying numbers are elite, but a final group game against Spain leaves qualification hanging in the balance.
The Bracket – Who Plays Who
Based on current group standings after Matchday 2. Groups I, J, K and L have only completed Matchday 1.
The standout tie is a potential France versus Brazil meeting in the Round of 16. Germany versus Norway is another heavyweight clash. England's projected route is particularly difficult, with Portugal, Mexico and then France or Brazil standing between them and the semi-finals.
Where the Value Sits
Edge equals model probability minus market implied probability.
The Recommended Bets
Argentina to reach the semi-final at 6/5 remains the strongest position in the market. The model gives them a 61.8% chance compared to a market implied probability of 45.5%, creating a 16.3 percentage point edge. Their projected path of Uruguay, Australia or Iran, then Canada or Paraguay is one of the most favourable available.
- Best Bet: Argentina to reach the semi-final at 6/5. Model 61.8%, market 45.5%.
USA to reach the quarter-final at 10/9 also rates strongly. The model gives them a 63.1% chance compared to a market implied 47.4%. A likely route through Sweden and Egypt creates a realistic path to the last eight.
- Strong Value: USA to reach the quarter-final at 10/9. Model 63.1%, market 47.4%.
England to reach the semi-final at 8/5 carries a 51.4% model probability against a market implied 38.5%. The value exists, but England's route is tougher than most rivals.
- Value With Caveat: England to reach the semi-final at 8/5. Model 51.4%, market 38.5%.
Argentina remain the strongest outright recommendation. At 13/2 the market implies 13.3%, while the model gives them 18.6%. Their bracket, geography and consistent performance continue to support the price.
- Outright: Argentina to win at 13/2. Model 18.6%, market 13.3%.
What To Avoid
Egypt to reach the last 16 remains one of the biggest negative edges in the dataset. The market implies a 52.4% chance at 10/11 while the model gives them only 10%. Their cumulative xGD of +0.36 does not support their current position.
- Avoid: Egypt to reach the last 16 at 10/11. Model 10%, market 52.4%.
Uruguay to reach the last 16 at 13/20 also looks significantly overpriced. The market implies 60.6%, while the model gives them only 23.2%. Strong performances have left them with a difficult task rather than a favourable position.
- Avoid: Uruguay to reach the last 16 at 13/20.
Brazil continue to look too short in the outright market. The model gives them a 4.3% chance of lifting the trophy compared to a market implied 10% at 9/1. A projected route through Japan and then France leaves little margin for error.
- Avoid: Brazil to win at 9/1. Model 4.3%, market 10%.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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