Della Place looked like she was going the best in the race, and I was thinking we're not going to get a gap, to finding very little and being poor.
Per Contra 9/2 (1pt) – Newcastle 3.12
Whenever I back against a horse who I tipped on their previous start, it usually comes back to bite me. I won't learn, and even though I believe the step up in trip will suit Eternal Force, he is becoming an unbackable price.
Of the others, Per Contra was the one who stuck out the most. The Godolphin horse and Rogue Millions could easily improve again and play a big role, but Per Contra lingers on a dangerous handicap mark.
He isn't a prolific winner, but he is 2/3 on the all-weather, with both of his wins coming at this track. Class 2 races are where he usually comes unstuck on the turf, but maybe it's different on the artificial surfaces.
On each start on the all-weather, he has produced an RPR of 92+. He is now running off an official rating of 84, so a performance of 92+ would see him be tough to beat. He won a 10f race at this venue off a mark of 83 last year, and won it nicely.
He gets into this race off a nice racing weight, and the yard has been getting a fair amount of winners in the last couple of weeks.
Dosman 6/1 (1pt EW, 3pl) – Newcastle 3.47
Similar to the first race, there are more unexposed types than Dosman, but I really like the all-weather profile of this horse.
I'm not sold on the current market favourite (Back In Black), and El Matador could be ahead of the handicapper, but his price doesn't reflect his chance in this race. Treble Tee was an interesting runner in this, and with the jockey claiming 5lbs, he's handicapped to go well. However, he has an entry for the John Smith's handicap, so maybe that is the long-term plan.
In the end, I thought Dosman was overpriced. He has a solid record on the all-weather and rarely runs a bad race. He has shown he is capable of winning a race like this, as he ran a solid fourth in a better event at this track behind Tyrrhennian Sea. The only issue with him is that he is held up and often struggles for a clear run. I really believe that with a clear run-through, he will have a strong chance.
At the time of writing, I think he should be at least half of his price.
Aalto 7/4 (2pt) – Newmarket 12.45
I fully expect the price to collapse on Aalto with Ryan Moore being booked for Ian Williams. Even if Ryan wasn't taking the ride, I'd have still backed him, so it's a little frustrating that he'll be a shorter price than what he would've been.
The July course brings out the best of Aalto, and when he's firing at this track, he is a very good horse. He won the Bunbury Cup in 2024 and finished second in the same race last year. His form elsewhere isn't anywhere near as good, so his handicap mark has taken a dip.
He is running off a mark of 85, which makes him very well handicapped. If their plan was to run in the Bunbury Cup, he might need to win this to give himself a fighting chance of getting a spot in the race. Usually, there is a horse that likes to turn up whilst carrying a big weight, so he'll need to go up in the handicap.
He's had two runs this season and looks primed for a big run.
GambleAware