Paraguay v Australia
Paraguay

Paraguay vs Australia

, KO: 03:00 , Levi’s Stadium
Australia

A pivotal clash takes place at Levi’s Stadium in World Cup Group D in the early hours of Friday morning as Paraguay face Australia.

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The two sides are locked together on three points, sitting second and third in the group respectively heading into this key encounter.

After being put to the sword 4-1 by the USA in their opening group game, Paraguay responded at the first time of asking with a narrow 1-0 win over Turkey.

As such, the South Americans come into their final group game knowing that a draw would almost certainly secure their passage to the knockout phase.

Australia find themselves in a near-identical position, also on three points heading into the final round of group fixtures.

The Socceroos’ 2-0 win over Turkey was followed by a 2-0 defeat to the USA.

How the bookies view it: A stalemate will suit both sides

It’s no surprise that the bookmakers have the draw priced up as the most likely outcome here, given it’s a result that would almost certainly see both sides progress to the last 32.

The stalemate is currently trading at 6/5 with bet365, while a Paraguay win is priced at 19/10 and an Australia victory at 29/10.

Head to head: A rare encounter

Paraguay and Australia meet for just the third time ever on Friday, and for the first time in competitive action.

Their only previous meetings came in friendlies, the first finishing 1-1 before Australia edged the second 1-0. Another game featuring under 2.5 goals this time around is priced as short as 4/11 with bet365.

Players to watch: Target Toure fouls

Mohamed Toure has committed a total of three fouls across his two appearances at the 2026 World Cup. With another physical contest expected, the 5/4 on Toure to commit two or more fouls with bet365 looks like good value.

Matias Galarza proved to be Paraguay's hero against Turkey, scoring the only goal of the game after just two minutes. The 24-year-old is priced as big as 15/2 with bet365 to get himself on the scoresheet again against Australia.

Predicted line-ups

Paraguay will be unable to call upon the services of influential midfielder Miguel Almiron, who will serve a a suspension after being sent off against Turkey.

Mathew Leckie is rated as doubtful for Australia after picking up a knock against the USA. Other than that, the Socceroos have a fully fit squad to choose from.

Paraguay: Gill; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; D. Gomez, Cubas, Galarza, Sosa; Pitta, Enciso

Australia: Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Leckie, O'Neill, Okon-Engstler; Irankunda, Toure

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS

This is one of the most important matches of the final group round. Paraguay and Australia both sit on three points with identical goal differences, meaning the winner is likely to secure second place behind the USA while the loser is left relying on the best third-placed qualification route.

That situation should create an open contest. Neither side benefits greatly from a cautious approach and both managers know victory is the objective.

Paraguay's tournament has been difficult to explain through results alone. They were heavily beaten 4-1 by the USA while generating only 0.54 xG, before responding with a 1-0 victory over Turkey despite conceding 2.17 xG and five big chances. Their blended xGA of 3.59 per game highlights a defence that is allowing opponents too many opportunities.

Australia have followed a similar pattern. They defeated Turkey despite being second best on the underlying numbers before losing to the USA. Defensive consistency has been a problem throughout.

With Miguel Almiron suspended, Paraguay will lean more heavily on Gustavo Gomez and Junior Alonso for leadership, while looking for attacking contributions from elsewhere in the squad. Australia will again look to Mitch Duke and Aziz Behich as key figures.

With so much at stake and neither defence convincing, chances at both ends look likely.

Anything else catch the eye?

It’s difficult to envisage anything other than a draw here, given the state of play in Group D, so the aforementioned 6/5 odds certainly merit consideration.

If you want to take it a step further, you can add under 2.5 goals, which nudges the price out to 6/4.

Another angle that could be worth a small punt is the draw and BTTS No combination, which is priced at 7/2 with bet365.

More correct score odds are available on our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.

Paraguay vs Australia Betting Tips & Predictions
Draw
6/5
Bet365
Draw & Under 2.5 Goals
6/4
Bet365
Mohamed Toure To Commit 2+ Fouls
5/4
Bet365
Further Reading
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