Before the tournament began, the model was built using outright odds, qualifying performance, confederation strength and historical adjustments to estimate every team's chances of progressing through the 2026 World Cup.
One matchday later, we have something far more valuable than pre-tournament assumptions. We have actual performances. Twenty matches into the tournament and the model already looks noticeably different.
Some of those changes are driven by results, some by xG data, and some by the betting market adjusting outright prices after the opening round of games. The most important lesson from Matchday 1 is that score lines alone rarely tell the full story.
France are the biggest winners.
Before the tournament, France had a 22.0% chance of winning the World Cup according to the model. After their 3-1 victory over Senegal, that figure has risen to 30.9%, while their probability of reaching the final has jumped from 35.1% to 44.9%. Their performance supported the result, posting a healthy +1.26 xG differential, and the market responded by cutting their outright odds from 9/2 to 7/2. The combination of a convincing win, strong underlying numbers and shorter odds has pushed France ahead of Spain as the model's outright favourite.
Their side of the draw has also helped. Norway's superior goal difference means France currently sit second in Group I despite winning their opener. That creates a slightly more favourable path through the early knockout rounds. The final group game against Norway now looks hugely significant because first and second place could determine whether France meet Germany or Brazil in the Round of 16.
Spain have moved in the opposite direction.
Their win probability has fallen from 25.4% to 18.4%, while their chances of reaching the final have dropped from 39.2% to 32.0%. The obvious reason is the disappointing 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, but the underlying data tells a much more positive story.
Spain generated 2.10 xG and conceded just 0.20, producing one of the strongest performances of the opening round despite failing to score. The model recognises that distinction and partially protects Spain from the damage caused by the result. Without the xG adjustment, the decline would have been considerably larger.
The bigger issue was the market reaction. Spain drifted from 4/1 to 11/2 after dropping points and that weaker price feeds directly into future knockout-stage simulations. The result hurt Spain. The performance itself did not.
The xG data has also highlighted several teams whose scorelines were misleading.
Switzerland's 1-1 draw with Qatar looked disappointing on paper but the underlying numbers were outstanding. Switzerland generated 3.20 xG compared to Qatar's 0.60, giving them a +2.60 xG differential. The model effectively upgrades Switzerland because the performance was far stronger than the result suggests. At 80/1, they still look undervalued compared to what Matchday 1 data indicates.
Sweden provide the opposite example. Their 5-1 victory over Tunisia was one of the biggest wins of the opening round, yet the xG numbers were much less dramatic at 1.33 to 0.28. Sweden deserved to win comfortably, but the scoreline exaggerated the gap between the sides. The model rewards the result while applying a degree of caution to the performance itself.
Several teams moved largely because of market reaction rather than underlying play.
Belgium drifted from 20/1 to 40/1 after drawing 1-1 with Egypt, causing their model win probability to fall from 1.6% to 0.3%. Australia moved the other way, shortening from 300/1 to 80/1 after beating Turkey 2-0. The Netherlands also suffered after their 2-2 draw with Japan, drifting from 14/1 to 20/1 and seeing their probability of reaching the final almost halve.
Not every major nation changed significantly.
Brazil remain almost exactly where they started. Their 1-1 draw with Morocco was supported by balanced underlying numbers and their win probability has moved only marginally from 4.7% to 4.9%. Argentina have also remained stable, improving from 12.9% to 14.8% after their comfortable 3-0 win over Algeria while remaining at 8/1 in the outright market.
The broader picture is that Matchday 1 has refined rather than transformed the tournament outlook. France have overtaken Spain as the model favourite, Spain's underlying numbers remain stronger than their result suggests, and the xG data has already identified several teams whose performances were either much better or much worse than the scorelines imply.
One round of matches has not rewritten the tournament. It has simply provided a clearer picture of where the market, the results and the underlying data agree, and where they do not.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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