Tunisia and the Netherlands meet at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Thursday evening with very different objectives. The Dutch are battling Japan for top spot in Group F and know they may need a sizeable victory to finish first.
Tunisia, meanwhile, are effectively playing for pride. Progression remains mathematically possible, but it would require a victory here, a Sweden defeat to Japan and a dramatic swing in goal difference. Realistically, their World Cup campaign is already over.
Few teams have endured a more disappointing tournament than Tunisia. Sabri Lamouchi oversaw the opening 5-1 defeat to Sweden before being removed from his position, with Herve Renard brought in to salvage something from the campaign. The change produced little improvement. Tunisia followed up by losing 4-0 to Japan in a performance that exposed the same attacking and defensive weaknesses.
The numbers are brutal. Tunisia have generated just 0.33 xG across their two World Cup matches, ranking 47th out of 48 teams. Against Japan they produced only 0.05 xG from open play across the entire match, one of the lowest attacking outputs recorded at the tournament. They have scored once, conceded nine times and rarely looked capable of competing with stronger opposition.
Renard's arrival may help stabilise the group in the longer term, but there has been little evidence of an immediate turnaround. Tunisia have struggled to progress the ball into dangerous areas, created very few clear chances and spent long periods defending deep without threatening on the counter-attack.
The Netherlands arrive in a far healthier position. Ronald Koeman's side opened with a frustrating 2-2 draw against Japan before delivering one of the performances of the tournament in a 5-1 victory over Sweden.
That result showcased the attacking quality available throughout the squad. The Dutch generated 2.61 xG from open play and repeatedly exposed Sweden's defensive structure through quick passing combinations and intelligent movement in the final third.
Across their two matches they have generated 3.39 xG, placing them among the strongest attacking teams in the competition. More importantly, there is still a clear incentive to keep attacking. The Netherlands and Japan both enter the final round level on four points and level on goal difference. Every goal could prove significant in deciding who tops the group.
That scenario should remove any temptation for Koeman to rotate heavily or settle for a narrow victory. If the Dutch establish an early lead, they are likely to continue pushing forward in search of additional goals.
How the Bookies View It
The Netherlands are priced at 1/6, implying an 85.7% probability of victory. Tunisia are available at 26/1, implying 3.7%, while the draw is 15/2, implying 11.8%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/15, implying 65.2%, while both teams to score is available at 6/4, implying 40%.
Head to Head: First Meeting
This will be the first meeting between Tunisia and the Netherlands.
Player to Watch: Cody Gakpo goal threat
Cody Gakpo has been one of the standout performers of the tournament so far.
The Liverpool forward has scored twice and registered an assist across his first two appearances. His movement from the left side continues to create problems for defenders, particularly when he drifts into central areas and attacks the space between centre-back and full-back.
His performance against Sweden highlighted everything that makes him so dangerous. Gakpo scored twice, registered five shots on target and constantly found pockets of space in advanced positions. His combination of pace, finishing ability and intelligent movement gives the Netherlands a consistent goal threat.
The wider context also works in his favour. The Dutch need goals and are unlikely to ease off if they move ahead. That means Gakpo should continue receiving opportunities throughout the match rather than seeing his side simply manage the result.
Against a Tunisia defence that has already conceded nine goals in two matches, he looks well placed to add to his tournament tally.
Predicted Line-ups
Tunisia 3-4-3: Chamakh; Talbi, Rekik, Bronn; El Abdi, Skhiri, Khedira, Valery; Saad, Hannibal, Chaouat.
Netherlands 4-3-3: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; De Jong, Reijnders, Gravenberch; Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Netherlands to score in both halves stands out.
The Dutch have found the net before and after half-time in both of their matches at this tournament and Thursday's circumstances strongly support that trend continuing. Unlike many teams entering the final round, they cannot afford to simply protect a lead.
Goal difference could determine top spot in Group F and Koeman knows it. That should encourage an aggressive approach from the opening whistle, with full-backs pushing high and midfielders joining attacks whenever opportunities arise.
Tunisia's defensive record offers little resistance to that argument. They have conceded nine goals across two matches and have struggled badly when opponents increase the tempo. Their inability to keep possession for meaningful periods also places additional pressure on a defence that has spent most of the tournament under sustained attack.
The Dutch possess superior quality in every area of the pitch and have every incentive to keep pressing regardless of the scoreline.
Whatever the final result, the Netherlands look likely to create enough chances to score in both halves.
GambleAware