Contrary to expectations for Group H, both Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia have a real chance to finish second if they win this final match. Given that Uruguay are likely headed towards their toughest night of the tournament, the winner of this match could secure a direct spot in the next round.
Cape Verde are one of the fairy-tale stories of this World Cup, having held Spain to a 0-0 draw and played on equal terms against Uruguay. We’d even go so far as to say that their second half against La Celeste was one of the strongest of the entire tournament, even though they scored only once.
Bubista’s ambitious team has every reason to feel optimistic about this match, given Saudi Arabia’s lackluster performance; the Saudis earned a point against Uruguay solely because of the South Americans’ lack of quality in the final third.
Saudi Arabia have only two wins in their last 10 matches, both coming against Palestine (ranked 95th in the world) and Puerto Rico (ranked 154th). In other words, nothing to be proud of.
Their goal difference of -4 is certainly a problem right now, but a win over Cape Verde won’t matter at all, as long as Spain also win their match.
It will most likely be a spectacular match between two nations for whom advancing would be a historic achievement.
How the bookies view it: Cape Verde have a slight edge
As expected, the bookmakers haven’t dared to name a clear favourite in this match, as the odds are very close. Still, Cape Verde have been given a slight edge in the odds. Currently, you can back them at around 29/20. A draw is priced at 5/2, and Saudi Arabia are priced at around 7/4; you can find the best options by using our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.
Recent head-to-head: Saudi Arabia have positive memories
As expected, there’s not much to go on, since this will be the first-ever match between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia. As a side note, we can point out that the Green Falcons have faced African nations at World Cups a total of five times, with two wins, two draws, and just one loss.
Players to watch: Borges to take unnecessary risks
You’ll surely agree that it’s an extremely difficult task to identify a potential goal-scorer in two lineups that aren’t particularly strong on offence. That’s why we’ll focus on candidates for cards instead, as we expect a tense clash with plenty of potential for cards.
Diney Borges picked up a card against Uruguay and, in principle, shouldn’t take too many risks, but he’s one of those players who tend to get a bit rough in defense. This is also evident at the club level, where he’s picked up six cards in 25 matches for Al Bataeh last season.
As an alternative, we’ll be watching Joao Paulo, who will most likely start for Cape Verde after starting left back Sidny Lopes received his second yellow card against Uruguay and won’t be available. Paulo has played a total of 14 minutes so far in the World Cup, and we expect him to make more mistakes than the other defenders.
Probable line-ups
Cape Verde: Vozinha, Paulo, Diney, Pico, Moreira, Rodrigues, Monteiro, Duarte, Mendes, Benchimol
Saudi Arabia: Al-Owais, Al-Harbi, Lajami, Al-Tambakti, Al-Amri, Abdulhamid, Al-Shamat, N. Al-Dawsari, S. Al-Dawsari, Kanno, Al-Buraikan
Anything else catch the eye?
As we’ve already mentioned, we expect to see a very competitive match and maximum effort from both teams, given the rare opportunity to qualify directly for the next round. In this situation, we’ll certainly be paying attention to the card bets in the match.
Separately, we believe we’ll see their best performances in terms of offensive play, and we should see goals from both teams. But despite all that, we believe Cape Verde have shown much more so far and are in a great position to win this match.
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