The World Cup is now underway in North America, and while the first round of fixtures is still ongoing, we at MFT have already seen the result of the tournament 100,000 times over, thanks to our unique World Cup betting model.
The whole idea behind the model is to give us a good sense of the probabilities of World Cup 2026 outcomes, such as the tournament winner. What's more, it's being updated in real time based on the real-life results in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
What has the model told us about potential dark horses this summer? Let's take a look.
World Cup dark horses: Which sides are likely to surprise us this summer?
Morocco are predicted to go deep
Anyone who has watched Morocco at any point over the last four years will not be overly surprised by this prediction, but the model has them performing better than what the odds say.
Morocco are best priced at 4/1 to reach the quarter-finals, which translates as an implied probability of 20%. However, our model suggests that the Atlas Lions actually have a 22% of reaching the last eight, a feat they achieved in Qatar.
These odds are expected to shorten in light of their impressive display against Brazil, which could alter the value in this prediction.
Germany to perform better than expected
Germany's recent poor showings at major tournaments has left them largely forgotten about this summer. However, is that a little naive and unjustified?
While we shouldn't read too much into their 7-1 win over Curacao, they are priced at odds-against (7/4) to merely reach the quarter-final stage of the tournament, which is an implied probability of 36.4%. Our model, however, gives them a 42% chance of reaching the last eight.
Tip: Germany to reach the quarter-finals ( 7/4 @ Paddy Power)
Watch out for Colombia
Colombia are arguably being overlooked by the bookies this summer, especially when you consider they took Argentina to Extra Time in the final of the most recent edition of the Copa America.
The bookies have them priced at 11/10 (47.6%) to reach the round of 16 this summer, while our model has given them a 50.7% chance of making it this far. Why stop there, though? This is a team that possesses Bayern Munich's Luis Diaz after all.
Colombia are priced as long as 3/1 to reach the quarter-final and 6/1 to reach the semi-finals.
Tip: Colombia to reach the round of 16 ( 11/10 @ Paddy Power)
Andy is tipster who has been calling Golf tournaments for several years across many different platforms. He has covered all tournaments from the Asian Tour to the Masters. He's also a keen football fan and is an expert on European football.
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