Group F of the World Cup turned out to be one of the most intense groups, filled with resounding victories and three nations vying to see which one will end on top. The Netherlands have the easier task in the final round, while Japan and Sweden will treat us to yet another thrilling match, the outcome of which will remain uncertain until the final whistle.
Group F delivered a total of 20 goals across four matches, with Sweden involved in 10 of them. Graham Potter’s team started with a phenomenal 5-1 victory over Tunisia, but just days later experienced what it’s like to lose by the same score when they faced the Netherlands.
Expectations for the Blagult were much higher, and at certain moments they certainly dictated the action on the field, but the Dutch were simply at their best in that match, and unlike Sweden, they capitalized on their chances.
On paper, Sweden created far more scoring opportunities than the Netherlands, so if they can replicate their creativity on offense against Japan, there’s a good chance they’ll score more goals.
Hajime Moriyasu’s team, however, has shown that it is ready for any challenge. Unlike Sweden, they didn’t just avoid a loss against the Netherlands—they earned a point and scored two goals.
Japan’s last defeat was more than nine months ago, and since then they have defeated Brazil, Scotland, and England. Many believe they can go far in this World Cup, having reached the Round of 16 in four of their previous six World Cup appearances.
How the bookies view it: Huge advantage for the Samurai
It may come as something of a surprise, but most bookmakers consider Japan a strong favourite in this match, with a huge gap in the odds. We can also say that the odds keep dropping, which means Samurai Blue are receiving significant support from bettors around the world.
Currently, you can back Japan at 9/10, a draw at 12/5, or Sweden at around 33/10; you can find the best options through our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.
Recent head-to-head: Blagult are unbeaten in four
Japan and Sweden have faced each other four times since 1995, all of which were friendlies. This will be their first official World Cup match.
So far, the Blagult remain undefeated against the Samurai Blue, with one win in those four matches and the other three ending in draws.
More interesting, however, are Japan’s recent statistics against European nations at World Cups. The Samurai Blue have not lost in regulation time in four consecutive matches against European teams.
In 2022, they defeated Spain and Germany in the group stage before drawing 1-1 with Croatia in the Round of 16, and were eliminated on penalties.
Players to watch: Ayase Ueda has arrived
Feyenoord star Ayase Ueda finally got on the scoreboard with two goals against Tunisia and will be the main threat in front of Nordfeldt’s goal. Crystal Palace midfielder Daichi Kamada has scored in both of Japan’s matches so far, and he’s not a bad option at higher odds, but it’s a much riskier bet.
For the Swedes, Alexander Isak is showing that he’s regained his form after recovering from a broken leg that sidelined him for most of the recent season. Against Tunisia, he scored a goal and provided two assists, and against the Netherlands, he added his third assist.
A large portion of the Blagult’s attacks go through him, so we’d certainly bet on him to score or assist again.
Probable line-ups
Japan: Suzuki, Ito, Itakura, Tomiyasu, Nakamura, Tanaka, Sano, Doan, Ito, Kamada, Ueda
Sweden: Nordfeldt, Lindelof, Hien, Lagerbielke, Elanga, Bergvall, Karlstrom, Ayari, Gudmundsson, Isak, Gyokeres
Anything else catch the eye?
Given Japan’s performance and the defensive weaknesses Sweden have shown, there’s a very good chance the Samurai Blue will win this match and advance directly.
But Sweden have more than enough world-class players on offence to pull off an upset or even dominate the game. All they need is more accuracy in their finishing.
In any case, we expect them to score again, just as we expect Japan to find the net at least once. Both Teams to Score seems like the best option, but Over 2.5 is almost just as likely.
Given how tense this match is expected to be, we can also expect some cards, even though the Japanese play extremely clean football. But Sweden made a lot of defensive mistakes against the Netherlands and picked up three cards. The referee for the match will be Ivan Barton, who is known for being quite quick to hand out cards, including reds.
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