EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Barnsley vs Morecambe
The hosts will want to get back to winning ways after seeing their 12-game unbeaten run coming to an end on Tuesday night with an away defeat at Exeter. They were starting to put real pressure on Plymouth, Ipswich and Sheff Wednesday as they looked to gate-crash the automatic promotion race, but that defeat has added real pressure, but they have a real chance to take three points as they entertain Morecambe.
Barnsley will believe that automatic promotion is still within their grasp, and they go into this game looking for a seventh consecutive home win. The hosts have lost just 3 of their last 20 L1 games winning 14 and at home recently its W10-D0-L1 with the defeat coming when Bolton turned up at Oakwell. They have scored 1.5+ in 10 of their last 11 home games beating Sheff Wed 4-2 and Plymouth 3-0 in their last two home fixtures.
They have a very strong record against bottom half at home its W8-D1-L1 scored 1.5+ in eight.
Morecambe on the road have only beaten rock bottom Forest Green and have a record of W1-D5-L13. They concede an average of 1.95 goals per away fixture and are yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels this season. When playing the top 7 away from home its 6 defeats from 6 conceding a total of 18.
The odds for a home win by at least one goal have long gone, but we can add Barnsley to win 4 or more corners to boost the price. The hosts have won an average of 5.33 corners per home fixture with Morecambe conceding 6.89 per away game. They have conceded at least three corners in every away fixture this season and four or more corners in 16 of their 19 away days.
- Barnsley win, Barnsley over 1 goal and Barnsley over 3 corners at 4/5 with bet365
Charlton vs Shrewsbury
I am keen to back goals in this game with both sides getting on the scoresheet. This game might have a bit of an end of season feel to it with the visitors nine points off the playoffs and Charlton a further six points further back, but 14 points ahead of the relegation places.
The hosts have scored in 84% of their home fixtures whilst keeping just three clean sheets. Their home games generally see goals with every game seeing at least two goals and over 2,5 match goals landing in 84%. The Addicks sit 6th for home xG with 1.33 and 8th for goals scored, but at the other end its 24th for xGA and 16th for actual goals conceded. Shrewsbury will have chances to score as only two sides concede more shot and three sides concede more shots on target.
Dean Holden was appointed in December and over his eight game they have conceded in seven and scored in seven, with the only game they failed to find the net was against 2nd placed Sheffield Wednesday.
The Shrews have had a good season and at one stage they looked likely to make the play offs but with just two wins in their last seven games that now looks unlikely. Away from home they have a record of W6-D5-L8, but if we exclude the top eight its W6-D4-L4. They have failed to score in six of their away fixtures but again both Ipswich and Sheff Wednesday shut them out and they have conceded in 12. They have now conceded in their last four away games.
The hosts shouldn’t be trusted to shut any side out and the visitors will score here and apart from a run of favourable games for the visitors when then keep consecutive clean sheets against Exeter, Oxford, MK Dons and Burton, they have had a habit of conceding goals.
- Both teams to score at 10/11 with William Hill
Walsall vs Sutton
Thomas Parsons is the referee here and he has a good history of cards this season. In his 12 League Two games he has averaged 4.55 cards per game, and this increases to 5.0 cards per game in the EFL. In total he has taken charge of 17 EFL games this term and has given both sides a card each in 15 of these and one of the games he failed to do so was his first game in the EFL back in August. In League Two only its 92% of his fixtures have seen both sides collect a card each and 83% he has delivered 3 or more cards and 50% that there has been 4 or more cards.
Walsall at home have collected a card in 63% of games whilst Sutton have collected a card in 84% of their away games. The visitors average 2.42 cards per away fixture this season whilst 89% of their hosts have also collected card. Parsons has taken charge of Sutton twice this season and given then two cards on both occasions whilst giving their opponents a card as well. Sutton commit the 3rd most fouls in the league.
Walsall have seen 17 of their 19 visitors collect a card, picking up an average of 2.05
Given the above I am keen to get behind cards and with Skybet we can back both sides to collect 10 or more booking points (a yellow card is worth 10 and a red card 25) and the match to have at least 40 booking points. I am going to add at least one match goal to boost the odds to 10/11. There is still a lot riding on this game for Sutton as they sit just five points off the playoffs. Both sides have had a few goalless games recently but draws are no good for the visitors.
- Both sides 10+ booking points, 40+ match booking points and over 0.5 goals – 10/11 with Skybet.
