Hull look to extend their winning start to the Premier League season when Aston Villa visit the MKM Stadium on Saturday at 17:30. The hosts have taken six points without conceding, while Villa arrive searching for their first point and first goal.
Sergej Jakirovic’s side opened with a 2-0 victory over Manchester United before winning 1-0 at Coventry. Those results have given Hull an excellent platform, although their performances suggest there is still work to do.
Against United, Semi Ajayi reacted after Oli McBurnie’s effort was pushed onto the post, before Nobel Mendy headed in Regan Slater’s free-kick. Hull then relied on their defensive organisation and goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis to protect the advantage.
The trip to Coventry followed a similar pattern. Hull had 31% possession and six shots but secured the points through Liam Millar’s late goal, created by Mohamed Belloumi.
Aston Villa have endured a difficult opening. A 4-0 defeat at Brighton was followed by a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal, leaving Unai Emery’s side with five goals conceded and little attacking encouragement.
Villa have generated just 0.76 xG across those matches, registering no shots on target and creating no big chances. Their 13 attempts have included only five from inside the penalty area.
The Brighton defeat was particularly damaging. A Victor Lindelof own goal was followed by strikes from Maxim De Cuyper and Jack Hinshelwood, who scored twice. All four goals arrived before Joao Gomes was sent off, so the dismissal does not explain Villa’s early collapse.
Hull remain without Jack Butland, Charlie Hughes, Matty Jacob, Darko Gyabi, Eliot Matazo and Oscar Zambrano. Joe Gelhardt is doubtful with an ankle injury. The Tigers signed six players on deadline day and 18 players overall, so have plenty of options.
Villa are missing the suspended Gomes, while Amadou Onana and Johan Manzambi are injured. Leon Bailey and Brian Madjo are doubts. Ross Barkley and Boubacar Kamara are expected to form the midfield pair, with Nicolas Jackson leading the attack.
How the bookies view it
Hull are 3/1, implying a 25.0% chance of winning. The draw is 11/4, representing 26.7%, while Aston Villa are favourites at 9/10, carrying an implied probability of 52.6%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 10/11, implying 52.4%, with under 2.5 priced at 19/20, or 51.3%.
Both teams to score is 3/4 for yes, representing 57.1%, while no is 21/20, implying 48.8%.
Head to head: Last Hull victory over Villa was 2015
Villa are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Hull, recording one victory and three draws.
Their most recent encounter finished 2-2 at Villa Park in January 2019, following a 3-1 Villa win at Hull earlier that season. Both meetings during the previous campaign ended level.
Hull’s last victory in this fixture came in February 2015, when they won 2-0 at home. Across the nine meetings since April 2010, Villa have four wins to Hull’s one, with four draws.
Player to watch: Konstantinos Tzolakis to keep another clean sheet?
Konstantinos Tzolakis has been central to Hull’s perfect start, making eight saves across their opening two matches.
He stopped five efforts against Manchester United and another three at Coventry, including an important opportunity for Taiwo Awoniyi.
Those contributions matter because Hull have allowed opponents to generate 3.38 xG and take 22 shots from inside the penalty area. Their clean sheets have required more than simply keeping teams away from goal.
Villa have yet to register a shot on target, but Tzolakis gives Hull an important last line of defence if the visitors improve their attacking output.
Predicted lineups
Hull (3-4-3): Tzolakis, Ajayi, Egan, Mendy, Coyle, Slater, Morita, Giles, Belloumi, McBurnie, Stroud.
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Suzuki, Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Maatsen, Kamara, Barkley, McGinn, Buendia, Hemmings, Jackson.
Anything else catch the eye
Hull’s results have been stronger than their underlying performances. Six points have come from an expected-points total of 1.50, while their opponents have generated more than twice Hull’s 1.54 xG.
That makes it difficult to treat the hosts as a dominant side on the strength of two wins. Manchester United created 2.19 xG against them, while Coventry had 69% possession and outshot Hull 11-6.
However, Hull’s own attacking numbers also point towards a relatively low-scoring contest. They have managed 14 shots across two matches, with just seven coming from inside the box.
Their opening victory was heavily influenced by set pieces. Hull generated 0.86 xG from those situations against United, compared with just 0.12 from open play. They have found ways to score without sustaining large volumes of attacking pressure.
Villa’s problems at the other end are more pronounced. They have failed to score in either match and have not created a big chance. Jackson will need better service, with Emiliano Buendia and John McGinn expected to support him.
The visitors’ defensive improvement against Arsenal also deserves consideration. After allowing Brighton 3.19 xG, Villa restricted Arsenal to 1.25 xG and seven shots. It still ended in defeat, but the game was considerably tighter.
There are risks to the under. Hull have needed strong goalkeeping to remain unbeaten, and Villa’s opening match showed how quickly their defensive structure can unravel. Two fixtures are also a small sample from which to draw firm conclusions.
Nevertheless, Hull have won without producing a high volume of chances, while Villa’s attack has offered very little. Neither Hull match has produced more than two goals, and Villa’s latest outing also stayed below that line.
Under 2.5 goals is the bet at 19/20.
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