World Cup Group F Guide, Predictions & Odds

The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, allowing nations that previously could not have dreamed of qualifying to have their moment on the biggest stage in sport.

The likes of Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan made their debuts at the tournament following successful qualifying campaigns.

Thanks to the expanded format, we also have a number of nations who made their returns to the World Cup, including Sweden, who are in Group F alongside the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia.

Find out what MrFixitsTips has to say about Group F ahead of the 2026 World Cup, including predictions, tactics, and odds.

Which teams are in Group F of the 2026 World Cup?

Netherlands

Current FIFA ranking: 7

Netherlands headed into the World Cup with a squad capable of beating anyone on their day, but questions remained over whether they could finally turn their potential into silverware.

Those questions initially grew louder after Oranje began their campaign with a frustrating 2-2 draw against Japan, surrendering valuable ground in the race for top spot in Group F.

However, Ronald Koeman's side delivered the perfect response on matchday two, dismantling Sweden 5-1 in one of the most impressive performances of the tournament so far. Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey both scored twice as the Dutch ripped apart a side that had entered the match on the back of a five-goal victory of their own.

Netherlands completed an impressive group-stage recovery by defeating Tunisia 3-1 on Matchday Three to finish top of Group F with seven points. An early own goal from Ellyes Skhiri and strikes from Brian Brobbey and Jan Paul van Hecke secured another convincing victory, while Tunisia's consolation did little to threaten Oranje's control.

Having recovered from their opening stumble, the Dutch now head into the Round of 32 full of confidence, where they will face Morocco in one of the standout ties of the first knockout round.

Manager and tactics

Ronald Koeman has brought stability back to the national side, leaning towards a pragmatic style that balances attacking freedom with a solid defensive organisation.

The Netherlands are most comfortable in a 4-3-3 system, using width and quick transitions to create chances while relying on technically talented midfielders to control the ball. Their biggest concern could be the lack of a world-class centre-forward.

Japan

Current FIFA ranking: 18

Japan arrived at the World Cup as one of the strongest nations representing Asia, having built a reputation for causing problems for elite opponents.

The Samurai Blue enhanced that reputation by earning an impressive 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in their opening fixture, before taking complete control of their qualification hopes with a dominant 4-0 victory over Tunisia on matchday two.

Daichi Kamada opened the scoring inside four minutes, while Ayase Ueda netted twice in a commanding performance.

Japan sealed their place in the knockout rounds by drawing 1-1 with Sweden on matchday three. Daizen Maeda fired Hajime Moriyasu's side ahead early in the second half before Anthony Elanga quickly restored parity, but the point proved enough to secure second place in the group with five points.

The Samurai Blue have once again reached the knockout stages and now face a daunting round of 32 encounter against Brazil, offering them another opportunity to test themselves against one of football's traditional superpowers.

Manager and tactics

Hajime Moriyasu has turned Japan into a well-organised and tactically flexible side that is comfortable both with and without the ball.

Japan often line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on quick passing, smart movement and quick counter-attacks. Their discipline and work rate make them difficult to break down, but a lack of physicality compared to some of the tournament favourites could become an issue should they progress into the knockout stage.

Sweden

Current FIFA ranking: 38

Sweden headed into the World Cup as a physically strong and well-drilled side, though recent inconsistency had raised doubts over whether they could once again challenge elite opposition.

Those concerns appeared misplaced after the Blågult opened their campaign with a stunning 5-1 victory over Tunisia.

However, any optimism generated by that result quickly evaporated on matchday two as they were comprehensively beaten 5-1 by Netherlands.

Sweden struggled to contain the movement and pace of the Dutch attack, conceding five goals in a damaging defeat that significantly complicated their path to the knockout stages.

Graham Potter's men responded with a determined 1-1 draw against Japan in their final group match. Anthony Elanga cancelled out Daizen Maeda's opener to earn Sweden a valuable point, but they finished third in Group F with four points after narrowly missing out on the top two.

Fortunately, that tally was enough to see them progress as one of the tournament's best third-placed teams.

Sweden's reward is a challenging round of 32 clash against France, where they will hope to spring one of the biggest upsets of the knockout stage.

Manager and tactics

Graham Potter is still very new to the national team, but he has already built structure, organisation and collective discipline – qualities which came to light as Potter oversaw a success in the World Cup qualifying playoffs.

Sweden typically operate in a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 shape, focusing on compact defensive lines and quick transitions when opportunities arise. Their main challenge is creativity in possession, as they can sometimes become too predictable when chasing games against stronger teams.

Tunisia

Current FIFA ranking: 44

Tunisia arrived at the World Cup as one of Africa's most organised and defensively disciplined teams, but their campaign quickly unravelled.

The Eagles of Carthage suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat against Sweden in their opening fixture and followed that with an even more disappointing 4-0 loss to Japan on matchday two.

Tunisia managed only a handful of efforts on goal throughout the contest and rarely looked capable of troubling a Japanese side that dominated possession and chances from start to finish.

Their campaign ended with a 3-1 defeat to Netherlands on matchday three, leaving them bottom of Group F without a point.

It marked a deeply disappointing tournament for the Eagles of Carthage, who entered the competition with hopes of challenging for qualification but instead exited after three successive defeats and a goal difference of minus 10.

Manager and tactics

Sabri Lamouchi took over the national side last January following a disappointing Africa Cup of Nations campaign, but the former Nottingham Forest manager lost his job following the defeat to Sweden, making way for Herve Renard to take over.

Renard is one of the most respected international managers of the modern era, having won the Africa Cup of Nations with Zambia in 2012 and again with Ivory Coast in 2015. He also led Morocco to the 2018 World Cup and famously guided Saudi Arabia to their shock victory over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup.

A switch to a more conservative 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 shape would not be surprising, with Renard often preferring to have a dedicated holding midfielder screening the defence, allowing the back four to remain compact and reducing the space available to opposition playmakers.

Under Renard, Tunisia are unlikely to press high for extended periods. Instead, they will probably sit deeper, invite pressure and look to attack quickly through the wings.

This approach worked exceptionally well for Saudi Arabia during parts of the 2022 World Cup and has been a recurring theme throughout Renard's international career.

2026 World Cup Group F group winners and qualification predictions

Looking at this group, few people would bet against Netherlands finishing in top spot, and they did that with seven points.

The big battle for second place featured Sweden, and Japan, and the Japanese edged it, which was accurate with the bookies expectations.

Tunisia were expected to finish bottom and they did that, accurate with the bookies' odds.

Bookmakers around the world offer countless different markets and options for bettors, so be sure to check out our guide to the best World Cup betting apps before the tournament kicks off.

2026 World Cup Group F fixtures and odds

Matchday 1

Netherlands (11/10) were slight favourites against Japan (11/4), but the odds also suggested a competitive game rather than a one-sided affair. A draw (13/5) was the second-most likely outcome in the market, and that is exactly what happened. The bookmakers correctly identified the match as closely contested.

Meanwhile, Sweden (19/20) were clear favourites against Tunisia (7/2) and delivered a convincing victory. The market got the winner right, although few would have expected such a dominant four-goal margin.

Matchday 2

Netherlands (4/6) were clear favourites against Sweden (9/2) and fully justified that status with one of the standout performances of matchday two.

The market correctly backed the Dutch to win, although few would have anticipated such a comprehensive four-goal margin against a Sweden side that had scored five goals in their opening match.

Japan (3/4) were strong favourites and delivered an emphatic victory over Tunisia (9/2). The bookmakers correctly recognised the gap between the two sides, with Japan following up their impressive draw against the Netherlands by producing one of the most dominant displays of the tournament so far.

Matchday 3

Japan were slight favourites at 11/10, while Sweden were priced at 13/5, but the draw was also a realistic outcome at 5/2. The bookmakers slightly overrated Japan, yet the match remained closely contested as expected, with the points ultimately being shared.

The Netherlands were overwhelming favourites at 8/15, with Tunisia available at 6/1, and they comfortably justified that status. The Dutch controlled the game and secured a routine victory to complete a dominant group-stage campaign.

Confirmed finishing order (updated)

• Netherlands
• Japan
• Sweden
• Tunisia

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