World Cup Group F Guide, Predictions & Odds

The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, allowing nations that previously could not have dreamed of qualifying to have their moment on the biggest stage in sport.

The likes of Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan have made their debuts at the tournament following successful qualifying campaigns.

Thanks to the expanded format, we also have a number of nations who made their returns to the World Cup, including Sweden, who are in Group F alongside the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia.

Find out what MrFixitsTips has to say about Group F ahead of the 2026 World Cup, including predictions, tactics, and odds.

Which teams are in Group F of the 2026 World Cup?

Netherlands

Current FIFA ranking: 7

The Netherlands headed into the World Cup with a squad capable of beating anyone on their day, but questions remained over whether they could finally turn their potential into silverware.

Those questions initially grew louder after Oranje began their campaign with a frustrating 2-2 draw against Japan, surrendering valuable ground in the race for top spot in Group F.

However, Ronald Koeman's side delivered the perfect response on matchday two, dismantling Sweden 5-1 in one of the most impressive performances of the tournament so far. Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey both scored twice as the Dutch ripped apart a side that had entered the match on the back of a five-goal victory of their own.

The emphatic win moved the Netherlands to the top of Group F on four points and left them on the verge of qualification for the knockout stages. A final group match against already-eliminated Tunisia now offers Oranje the chance to secure first place and carry serious momentum into the Round of 32.

Manager and tactics

Ronald Koeman has brought stability back to the national side, leaning towards a pragmatic style that balances attacking freedom with a solid defensive organisation.

The Netherlands are most comfortable in a 4-3-3 system, using width and quick transitions to create chances while relying on technically talented midfielders to control the ball. Their biggest concern could be the lack of a world-class centre-forward.

Japan

Current FIFA ranking: 18

Japan arrived at the World Cup as one of the strongest nations representing Asia, having built a reputation for causing problems for elite opponents.

The Samurai Blue enhanced that reputation by earning an impressive 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in their opening fixture, before taking complete control of their qualification hopes with a dominant 4-0 victory over Tunisia on matchday two.

Daichi Kamada opened the scoring inside four minutes, while Ayase Ueda netted twice in a commanding performance that underlined Japan's growing status on the global stage.

The victory leaves Hajime Moriyasu's side level on points with the Netherlands and in an excellent position to reach the knockout rounds. Their final fixture against Sweden will effectively serve as a qualification shootout, with Japan knowing that even a draw could be enough to secure their place in the next round.

Manager and tactics

Hajime Moriyasu has turned Japan into a well-organised and tactically flexible side that is comfortable both with and without the ball.

Japan often line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on quick passing, smart movement and quick counter-attacks. Their discipline and work rate make them difficult to break down, but a lack of physicality compared to some of the tournament favourites could become an issue should they progress into the knockout stage.

Sweden

Current FIFA ranking: 38

Sweden headed into the World Cup as a physically strong and well-drilled side, though recent inconsistency had raised doubts over whether they could once again challenge elite opposition.

Those concerns appeared misplaced after the Blagult opened their campaign with a stunning 5-1 victory over Tunisia.

However, any optimism generated by that result quickly evaporated on matchday two as they were comprehensively beaten 5-1 by the Netherlands.

Sweden struggled to contain the movement and pace of the Dutch attack, conceding five goals in a damaging defeat that significantly complicated their path to the knockout stages.

The heavy loss leaves Sweden third in the group on three points, and Graham Potter's side now face a must-win encounter against Japan on the final matchday, knowing that victory could still secure qualification, while defeat would almost certainly bring their campaign to an end.

Manager and tactics

Graham Potter is still very new to the national team, but he has already built structure, organisation and collective discipline – qualities which came to light as Potter oversaw a success in the World Cup qualifying playoffs.

Sweden typically operate in a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 shape, focusing on compact defensive lines and quick transitions when opportunities arise. Their main challenge is creativity in possession, as they can sometimes become too predictable when chasing games against stronger teams.

Tunisia

Current FIFA ranking: 44

Tunisia arrived at the World Cup as one of Africa's most organised and defensively disciplined teams, but their campaign has quickly unravelled.

The Eagles of Carthage suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat against Sweden in their opening fixture and followed that up with an even more disappointing 4-0 loss to Japan on matchday two.

Tunisia managed only a handful of efforts on goal throughout the contest and rarely looked capable of troubling a Japanese side that dominated possession and chances from start to finish.

Those back-to-back defeats have left Tunisia rooted to the bottom of Group F with no points and a goal difference of minus eight, confirming their elimination from the tournament with one game still to play. What was expected to be a disciplined and competitive campaign has instead become one of the biggest disappointments of the group stage.

Manager and tactics

Sabri Lamouchi took over the national side last January following a disappointing Africa Cup of Nations campaign, but the former Nottingham Forest manager lost his job following the defeat to Sweden, making way for Herve Renard to take over.

Renard is one of the most respected international managers of the modern era, having won the Africa Cup of Nations with Zambia in 2012 and again with Ivory Coast in 2015. He also led Morocco to the 2018 World Cup and famously guided Saudi Arabia to their shock victory over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup.

A switch to a more conservative 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 shape would not be surprising, with Renard often preferring to have a dedicated holding midfielder screening the defence, allowing the back four to remain compact and reducing the space available to opposition playmakers.

Under Renard, Tunisia are unlikely to press high for extended periods. Instead, they will probably sit deeper, invite pressure and look to attack quickly through the wings.

This approach worked exceptionally well for Saudi Arabia during parts of the 2022 World Cup and has been a recurring theme throughout Renard's international career.

2026 World Cup Group F group winners and qualification predictions

Group F winner odds

• Netherlands (1.33)
• Japan (3.75)
• Sweden (19.00)
• Tunisia (N/A)

Group F qualification odds

• Netherlands (1.005)
• Japan (1.01)
• Sweden (1.05)
• Tunisia (N/A)

2026 World Cup Group F fixtures and odds

Matchday 1

Netherlands (11/10) were slight favourites against Japan (11/4), but the odds also suggested a competitive game rather than a one-sided affair. A draw (13/5) was the second-most likely outcome in the market, and that is exactly what happened. The bookmakers correctly identified the match as closely contested.

Meanwhile, Sweden (19/20) were clear favourites against Tunisia (7/2) and delivered a convincing victory. The market got the winner right, although few would have expected such a dominant four-goal margin.

Matchday 2

Netherlands (4/6) were clear favourites against Sweden (9/2) and fully justified that status with one of the standout performances of matchday two.

The market correctly backed the Dutch to win, although few would have anticipated such a comprehensive four-goal margin against a Sweden side that had scored five goals in their opening match.

Japan (3/4) were strong favourites and delivered an emphatic victory over Tunisia (9/2). The bookmakers correctly recognised the gap between the two sides, with Japan following up their impressive draw against the Netherlands by producing one of the most dominant displays of the tournament so far.

Matchday 3

Japan vs Sweden

• Japan (11/10)
• Draw (5/2)
• Sweden (13/5)

Tunisia vs Netherlands

• Tunisia (6/1)
• Draw (16/5)
• Netherlands (8/15)

Note: All above odds were correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. 

Looking at this group, few people would bet against Netherlands finishing in top spot. What's more, Oranje are currently priced at tasty 1.33 odds to come out on top.

The big battle for second place features Sweden, and Japan, though the Japanese now have the clear edge with the bookies.

Bookmakers around the world offer countless different markets and options for bettors, so be sure to check out our guide to the best World Cup betting apps before the tournament kicks off.

Predicted finishing order (updated)

• Netherlands
• Japan
• Sweden
• Tunisia

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