Scotland v Brazil
Scotland

Scotland vs Brazil

, KO: 23:00 , Miami Stadium
Brazil

Scotland will look to secure their passage to the knockout stages of the World Cup for the very first time as they take on record champions Brazil in Miami on Wednesday evening.

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Scotland made a winning start in Group C as they claimed a nervy 1-0 victory over Haiti thanks to a first-half goal from John McGinn.

However, Steve Clarke’s men failed to build on that victory, as they were beaten by Morocco thanks to an Ismail Saibari strike inside 70 seconds – on an evening in which all three of my selections landed.

Scotland will know a point will likely be enough to secure their place in the knockout stages of the World Cup for the very first time at the ninth attempt, but that will be easier said than done against a Brazil side still targeting top spot.

Carlo Ancelotti’s men were far from impressive in their group opener against Morocco, but they bounced back from that 1-1 draw by swatting aside Haiti 3-0.

All three goals came inside the first half, as Vinicius Jnr made it two in two games after Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha bagged a brace.

With Morocco facing Haiti at the same time, Brazil know they will likely need to win against the Scots and maintain their superior goal difference (which they currently lead by two) to top the group.

How the bookies view it: Brazil favourites

It will come as no surprise that Brazil are favourites to follow up their win over Haiti last time out, with bet365 pricing a win for the record champions at just 4/11.

Scotland are 7/1 underdogs to claim a shock victory, whilst the draw is 4/1.

Head to head: Brazilian dominance

These two nations have met on 10 occasions, with Brazil winning eight of those encounters and drawing the other two (W8-D2-L0).

Four of those clashes have come at the World Cup, with the Selecao winning in the group stages in 1982, 1990 and 1998, but the Tartan Army did hold the then-reigning champions to a goalless draw in West Germany in 1974.

Players to watch: Hard night at the Hard Rock for Scotland’s right back

Scotland’s right back will be in for a tough night given he will be up against an in-form Vinicius Jnr who draws fouls and cards for fun.

Aaron Hickey was booked in the win over Haiti, whilst Anthony Ralston – who came on for Nathan Patterson – somehow avoided a booking against Morocco, which only adds to the appeal.

I expect Aaron Hickey to come in from the start here, and he appeals at 11/5 to be shown a card.

Predicted line-ups:

Scott McKenna has missed Scotland’s opening two matches in the tournament and is still a doubt due to a calf injury.

Neymar has missed both of Brazil’s opening two clashes in Group C, but he is seemingly available to feature at some point, but Raphinha is out due to injury.

Scotland: Gunn, Hickey, Hendry, Hanley, Robertson, McGinn, McTominay, Christie, Tierney, McTominay, Adams

Brazil: Alisson, Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos, Casemiro, Guimaraes, Paqueta, Rayan, Vinicius Jnr, Cunha

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Both teams to score

Scotland sit top of Group C after their opening victory, but Brazil represent a significant increase in difficulty compared to Haiti. Steve Clarke's side secured a 1-0 win in their first match, although the underlying numbers suggest the contest was far closer than the score line implied. Both teams generated 1.05 xG, highlighting Scotland's willingness to attack but also exposing defensive vulnerabilities that stronger opponents may exploit.

Their blended figures of 1.37 xG for and 1.28 xG against reinforce that profile. Scotland are creating chances, but they are also allowing opportunities at the other end.

Brazil began with a 1-1 draw against Morocco in Carlo Ancelotti's first World Cup match in charge. They generated 1.26 xG and showed flashes of quality without ever fully imposing themselves. Their blended figures of 1.44 xG for and 1.09 xG against suggest there is still room for improvement, but the foundations remain strong.

Vinicius Junior and Raphinha provide pace and creativity in attacking areas, while Scotland know a draw could be enough to secure qualification depending on the result elsewhere in the group.

The strongest angle looks to be both teams to score. Our numbers make it a 52.7% probability compared to a market-implied 46.2%, offering value in a game where both sides have shown they can create chances.

Anything else catch the eye?

With Scotland being happy to settle for a point, I fully expect them to sit deep and try to frustrate the Brazilians, which should lead to a low-scoring encounter.

However, I do think Brazil will get the breakthrough and claim the three points they need to try and seal top spot in Group C.

Brazil to Win & Under 3.5 Goals landed in their last outing against Haiti, and a repeat pays an appealing 20/21 at bet365.

Scotland vs Brazil Betting Tips & Predictions
Brazil to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
20/21
Bet365
Aaron Hickey to be Carded
11/5
Bet365
Further Reading
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