UEFA Europa Conference League action arrives at the City Ground on Thursday as Nottingham Forest host FC Midtjylland in the first leg of their round of 16 tie.
Forest reached this stage after overcoming Fenerbahce 4-2 on aggregate in the knockout play off round. A decisive 3-0 away victory set the tie up before a 1-2 defeat at the City Ground in the second leg. Vitor Pereira has called on the home support to drive the team forward as Forest balance European football with a demanding Premier League schedule.
The English side finished 13th in the league phase with 14 points from eight matches after recording four wins, two draws and two defeats. Despite that finish, the underlying numbers show strong performance levels. Forest produced 21.4 xG and allowed only 7.5 xGA across the league phase, delivering 19.1 xPTS which ranked first in the competition.
Their attacking output has remained high throughout the campaign. Forest have scored 19 goals from 21.35 xG while generating 164 shots and 67 on target across their 10 matches.
Midtjylland arrive in strong form after extending their unbeaten run to seven matches with a 1-1 draw against AGF at the weekend. The Danish side impressed in the league phase, finishing third with 19 points after six wins, one draw and one defeat while scoring 18 goals and conceding eight.
They have shown excellent finishing across the competition with 18 goals from 12.8 xG and an 18.56% conversion rate.
The first leg places importance on Forest building an advantage before the return fixture in Denmark next week.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Nottingham Forest are priced at 4/7 in the match winner market, which equates to a 63.64% implied probability of a home victory. The draw is available at 10/3, representing a 23.08% chance, while FC Midtjylland are priced at 5/1, implying a 16.67% probability of an away win.
The goals markets suggest expectations of a relatively open contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/11, which converts to a 57.89% implied probability of at least three goals in the match.
Both teams to score is available at 5/6, representing a 54.55% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Only one recent meeting with visitors victorious
The two sides met earlier in the competition back in October in the league phase. Midtjylland secured a 3-2 victory at the City Ground in a match that produced five goals.
That game reflected an open contest with both teams creating chances and finding the net. The Danish side edged the match despite Nottingham Forest entering the fixture as the stronger side on paper.
Midtjylland showed their ability to punish opportunities in front of goal while Forest created enough chances to score twice during the game. The five goal total underlined the attacking threat both teams carried in the matchup.
That earlier meeting provides useful context ahead of this round of 16 tie. It showed Midtjylland capable of scoring at the City Ground while Forest also demonstrated their ability to generate attacking opportunities against the Danish side.
Players to watch: Gibbs-White key to success
Morgan Gibbs-White to record 1+ shot on target carries strong statistical support ahead of Nottingham Forest’s UEFA Europa Conference League clash with Midtjylland.
Gibbs-White has produced 17 shots across nine appearances in the competition, with 11 on target. That return shows consistent involvement in Forest’s attacking play from his role behind the striker.
His standout display came in the 3-0 away win against Fenerbahce in the knockout play off first leg. Gibbs-White recorded four shots with three on target while also contributing one goal and one assist.
He has also registered shots on target in matches against Real Betis, Midtjylland, Porto and Braga.
Forest’s attacking numbers support the angle. They have generated 164 shots and 67 shots on target across 10 matches while creating 38 big chances, the highest total in the competition.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest (5-3-1-1): Sels; Williams, Murillo, Milenkovic, Aina, Cunha; Dominguez, Sangare, Anderson; Gibbs-White; Igor Jesus.
FC Midtjylland (3-4-3): Olafsson; Lee, Erlic, Bech; Mbabu, Billing, Bravo, Bak; Chilufya, Brumado, Simsir.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score appeals when Nottingham Forest host FC Midtjylland in the round of 16 tie at the City Ground on Thursday.
Forest’s attacking output across the competition has been among the strongest in the field. They have generated 21.35 xG and created 38 big chances, the highest total recorded by any side in the tournament so far. That production has led to 19 goals across 10 matches.
The volume of attempts highlights the consistent attacking pressure Forest create. Across those matches they have produced 164 shots with 67 on target. Their average chance quality sits at 0.13 xG per shot which has delivered regular scoring opportunities.
Midtjylland also arrive with an efficient attack. The Danish side have scored 18 goals from only 12.8 xG across eight matches. Their finishing has been extremely clinical with an 18.56% conversion rate and 47 shots on target from just 97 attempts.
Despite strong defensive numbers for Forest, they have still conceded nine goals across 10 matches. Midtjylland have also shown defensive vulnerability when facing sustained pressure. Opponents have produced 107 shots and 43 shots on target against them across their eight games.
The attacking threat on both sides remains clear. Forest rank first in the competition for big chances created, while Midtjylland’s finishing record has consistently exceeded expected goals.
With Forest generating high shot volume and Midtjylland converting chances at an elite rate, both attacks have the profile to find the net in this first leg encounter.
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