The National League returns with 11 fixtures on Saturday, including matches involving three of the division’s leading underlying performers. Southend United travel to Boston United, Harrogate Town visit Woking and Worthing host Solihull Moors.
This column enters the weekend with a 9.38% ROI for the season. The latest selections follow the same data-led approach, with league position and recent results assessed alongside xG, xGA, shot production and home and away performance.
Southend have one of the widest underlying advantages on the card, but their finishing record and Boston’s home shot numbers require further analysis. Woking and Harrogate bring two positive xG profiles into a fixture where the result market offers little separation. Worthing’s overall numbers are less commanding, although their home performances create a clearer contrast with Solihull’s away record.
Southend returned to winning form last weekend, Woking and Harrogate produced convincing victories, while Worthing extended their unbeaten run. Solihull and Boston experienced difficult defeats, but the scorelines do not provide the full basis for either selection.
The three previews below assess whether those results reflect each side’s wider performance level and where the available prices offer enough value.
Boston United v Southend United
Southend United travel to the Jakemans Community Stadium on Saturday after returning to winning form against AFC Fylde. Boston United face a difficult response following a 6-0 home defeat against Yeovil Town, their fourth loss in six home matches.
The underlying difference supports Southend United to win at 5/6. Kevin Maher’s side rank second in the National League for xG difference at +0.49, producing 1.77 xG and allowing 1.28 xGA per game. Boston sit 13th on the same measure at -0.36, with 1.39 xG created against 1.75 xGA.
The venue data presents a closer contest than the league table suggests. Boston average 12 shots and six shots on target at home, but those opportunities have produced only 0.83 goals per match. Southend have taken 12 points from six away games, remaining unbeaten while scoring 2.67 goals per trip.
Southend’s 2.42 goals per game is 0.65 above their xG average, leaving some finishing regression risk. Their latest performance still offered firm support. They beat AFC Fylde 3-1, converted three of six shots on target and restricted their opponents to two efforts on target.
Boston’s defeat against Yeovil exposed the other side of the matchup. They failed to score for the second time in three home games and have now conceded nine goals across those fixtures.
The 0.85 xG difference between the teams is one of the largest on Saturday’s card. Southend’s stronger process, unbeaten away record and reliable scoring give them the advantage.
- Best bet: Southend United to win at 5/6 with 10Bet
Woking v Harrogate Town
Two sides with positive underlying records meet at the Laithwaite Community Stadium, where Woking host second-placed Harrogate Town. Both arrive after convincing victories, with Woking beating Eastleigh 3-1 and Harrogate recording a 3-0 win over AFC Hornchurch.
The result market offers little separation. Woking rank seventh for xG difference at +0.34, while Harrogate sit third at +0.60. Their attacking and defensive averages point more strongly towards over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Woking generate 1.61 xG and concede 1.27 xGA per match. Harrogate average 1.75 xG while allowing 1.15. Combining each attack with the opposing defence produces an estimated total close to 2.9 goals.
The venue splits provide further support. Woking’s six home fixtures have averaged 3.66 goals, with four clearing the 2.5 line. Alan Dowson’s side score and concede 1.83 goals per home match. Harrogate have found the net in all five away games, scoring 1.60 goals per trip.
Woking produced 10 shots on target from 13 attempts at Eastleigh. Harrogate controlled their victory over AFC Hornchurch with 18 shots and nine on target, while restricting their opponents to five attempts and none on target.
Harrogate’s defensive record creates the main reservation, particularly after consecutive clean sheets. Woking have still scored eight goals across their last three matches and possess a strong home attacking profile.
The expected-goal projection, venue scoring record and recent chance production support at least three goals.
- Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4 with William Hill
Worthing v Solihull Moors
Worthing return to Woodside Road seeking a fifth consecutive league victory after beating Gateshead 2-1. Solihull Moors travel south following a 2-0 home defeat against Halifax Town, leaving them with seven points from 12 matches.
The hosts are available at 17/20 to continue their winning run. Worthing’s overall xG difference is close to level at -0.02, based on 1.52 xG and 1.54 xGA per game. Solihull sit lower at -0.30, producing 1.40 xG while allowing 1.70.
Worthing’s home figures strengthen the selection. They average 12.67 shots, 6.17 shots on target and nine attempts from inside the penalty area. Their opponents produce 8.33 shots and 4.17 on target at Woodside Road.
Solihull’s away defence has struggled to control matches. They concede 3.00 goals, 13.40 shots and 6.60 shots on target per trip. All five opponents have scored, with Solihull losing three of those fixtures.
The latest performances continued the wider pattern. Worthing won at Gateshead after taking the lead twice, extending an unbeaten run to five matches. They have scored in every home league game and won three of six.
Solihull allowed Halifax seven shots on target during last weekend’s defeat and failed to score for the second time in three matches. Their 1.08 goals per game also sits 0.32 below xG, showing an attack struggling to convert its opportunities.
Worthing are not dominant on overall xG, but this is a venue-specific selection. Their home chance production and Solihull’s away defensive record provide the clearest reasons for taking the hosts at 17/20.
- Best bet: Worthing to win at 17/20 with Ladbrokes
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware