Ipswich Town return to Portman Road on Saturday when Fulham provide the opposition in a 15:00 Premier League kick-off. Only one point separates the teams after five matches, with both sides showing more attacking potential than their early results suggest.
Gary O'Neil's side have collected six points from victories over Sunderland and Crystal Palace. Their latest match ended in a 1-0 defeat at Everton, although Ipswich registered four shots on target and generated 1.29 xG. Everton produced the clearer opportunities, recording five big chances from 21 attempts, mostly after Ipswich were reduced to 10 men.
The previous victory at Selhurst Park showed Ipswich at their best. Emersonn cancelled out Anan Khalaili's opener before Leif Davis placed the visitors ahead. Palace equalised despite Axel Disasi's dismissal, but Zian Flemming struck in the 90th minute to secure a 3-2 win.
Ipswich have scored seven goals from 6.47 xG across five matches. Their attack has produced ten big chances and 35 shots from inside the penalty area. The defensive numbers are weaker, with O'Neil's team conceding 11 times from 8.55 xGA.
Fulham remain without a league victory, collecting three points from five matches. Alvaro Arbeloa's side have drawn with Liverpool and Manchester United since losing three of their opening fixtures.
Their 1-1 draw against Manchester United continued the improvement. Fulham generated 1.50 xG from 12 attempts and placed six on target. United dominated the shot count with 29 efforts, but Bernd Leno and the home defence protected a point.
Fulham's strongest attacking performance came against Crystal Palace. They created 3.88 xG and attempted 25 shots but lost 3-2 after failing to protect two separate leads. Their five league goals have come from 8.31 xG, highlighting poor finishing rather than a lack of opportunities.
Both squads have been affected by international duty. Ipswich have generally welcomed their players back earlier, giving O'Neil more time to prepare his team. Exequiel Palacios is the main exception after playing for Argentina on Wednesday night. He is not expected to train until Friday, leaving Florentino ready to start alongside Sasa Lukic.
Abdul Fatawu is suspended, with Jaden Philogene expected to replace him on the right. Fulham have concerns over Kenny Tete and Tom Cairney, who are both doubtful.
How the bookies view it
Ipswich are 7/4, giving them an implied winning probability of 36.4%. The draw is 13/5, representing 27.8%, while Fulham are 8/5, carrying an implied probability of 38.5%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/13, implying a 56.5% chance. Under 2.5 goals is available at 11/10, representing 47.6%.
Both teams to score is 8/13 for yes, which carries an implied probability of 61.9%. No is priced at 13/10, equating to 43.5%.
Head to head: Cottagers hold the advantage
The two Premier League meetings during the 2024-25 campaign finished level. Ipswich drew 1-1 at Portman Road before the teams shared four goals at Craven Cottage.
Fulham have avoided defeat across the last nine meetings from their recent history, recording five wins and four draws. Seven of those matches produced at least two goals.
The last four meetings at Portman Road have brought three Fulham victories and one draw. Both teams scored in two of the previous three matches at this venue.
Player to watch: Julio Enciso to shoot on sight
Julio Enciso has yet to score this season, but his shooting numbers show why he remains central to the Ipswich attack.
The Paraguay international has attempted 17 shots across five league appearances, the highest total among Ipswich's regular attacking players. Four have hit the target, while his opportunities carry a combined value of 1.26 xG.
Enciso has also created six chances and recorded 0.89 xA. He produced six attempts against Liverpool and followed that with five shots across the matches against Crystal Palace and Everton.
Fulham have allowed 55 shots from inside their penalty area and 20 big chances. Enciso should receive opportunities between midfield and defence, especially when Jack Clarke and Philogene stretch the visitors across the width of the pitch.
Predicted lineups
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Walton, Ouattara, Diop, O'Shea, Davis, Lukic, Florentino, Philogene, Enciso, Clarke, Emersonn.
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson, Berge, Charles, Bobb, King, Iwobi, Garcia.
Anything else catch the eye
The combined underlying totals support a game with at least three goals. These teams have generated 14.78 xG and conceded chances worth 16.36 xGA across their opening ten combined fixtures. Their matches have produced 31 goals, an average of 3.10 per game.
Ipswich's defensive record creates a clear route to Fulham scoring. They have kept no clean sheets and allowed 51 efforts from inside the box. Opponents have created 17 big chances, with Manchester United and Everton exposing problems when attacking the space around the central defenders.
Fulham's low goal return should not hide the quality of their attacking positions. They have accumulated 55 box attempts, while their current xG total is 3.31 higher than their five goals. A correction in finishing would materially improve their scoring record.
The visitors also carry defensive risk. Chelsea and Palace scored three times at Craven Cottage, while Manchester United produced 2.08 xG in the most recent match. Fulham have conceded eight goals despite Leno making several important saves.
Ipswich have scored at least twice in three fixtures. Emersonn has converted two of his nine attempts, while Clarke, Enciso and Philogene give the hosts different routes into the penalty area.
Fulham's two away matches have contained only one goal, but Sunderland and Liverpool restricted them to limited shooting quality. Ipswich have played with less defensive control, creating a more open matchup.
Both sides possess enough attacking talent to exploit the opposition's defensive numbers. Ipswich's preparation advantage strengthens their scoring prospects, while Fulham's underlying output points towards an improved return in front of goal.
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