Crystal Palace welcome Nottingham Forest to Selhurst Park on Sunday with the Premier League fixture kicking off at 14:00. The visitors hold the stronger underlying record, but the recent history between these sides points towards another tight contest.
Palace have collected four points from five matches. Their only victory came at Fulham, where they won 3-2 despite losing the expected-goals battle by a wide margin.
Their latest fixture produced a goalless draw at Leeds. Palace registered four shots on target and created two big chances from 1.15 xG. Leeds generated 1.42 xG but failed to convert any of their 13 attempts. That clean sheet ended a difficult defensive run. Palace had conceded 11 times across their opening four matches, including seven goals during home defeats against Manchester City and Ipswich.
Their wider process remains a concern. Palace rank last for xPTS with 4.05 and have generated 5.40 xG while allowing 11.27 xGA. Opponents have attempted 84 shots, including 63 from inside the penalty area.
Nottingham Forest have taken five points, although their performances support a stronger return. Their 8.14 xPTS ranks seventh in the division, placing them more than four points above Palace. Forest have produced 7.55 xG while conceding chances worth 5.41 xGA. They also hold a 48-33 advantage for shots inside the box and have created 13 big chances while allowing six.
Their latest result showed the difference between process and outcome. Coventry won 1-0 at the City Ground despite Forest attempting 24 shots and winning the xG battle 1.41 to 0.56. Only three home attempts tested the goalkeeper.
Oliver Gasner's side had previously recorded a deserved 2-1 victory at Aston Villa. Liam Delap opened the scoring immediately after half-time before Igor Jesus struck the winner in the 88th minute. Forest generated 2.27 xG and attempted 22 shots.
Palace must make changes to their defensive structure. Dean Henderson remains doubtful with a foot injury, leaving Walter Benitez in line to continue in goal. Axel Disasi is suspended, while Chadi Riad remains unavailable.
Oscar Mingueza is expected to enter the back three alongside Chris Richards and Jaydee Canvot. Anan Khalaili is also doubtful with a thigh problem. Jean-Philippe Mateta remains sidelined by a hamstring injury. Jorgen Strand Larsen should retain his place in attack, supported by Daichi Kamada and Yeremi Pino.
Forest have concerns over Nikola Milenkovic and Nicolo Savona, who are both doubtful. Ousmane Diomande, Murillo and Matheus Cunha are expected to form the defensive line.
How the bookies view it
Crystal Palace are 13/8, giving them an implied winning probability of 38.1%. The draw is 12/5, representing 29.4%, while Nottingham Forest are 17/10, carrying an implied probability of 37%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at evens, implying a 50% chance. Under 2.5 is priced at 5/6, which represents 54.5%.
Both teams to score is 4/5 for yes, carrying an implied probability of 55.6%. No is priced at 11/10, equating to 47.6%.
Head to head: Forest no easy opponents for the Eagles
Nottingham Forest are unbeaten across the last nine meetings from the teams' recent history. Forest have recorded two victories, while seven fixtures have ended level.
The previous three encounters all finished 1-1. Five of the last seven meetings have produced that scoreline, with the other two ending 1-0 to Forest and 0-0.
Eight of those nine matches contained fewer than three goals. The exception was a 2-2 Championship draw in December 2012.
Palace have failed to beat Forest across six Premier League meetings at Selhurst Park, recording five draws and one defeat.
Player to watch: Morgan Gibbs-White central to Forest hopes
Morgan Gibbs-White has completed every minute of Forest's five league matches.
The attacking midfielder has scored once from ten attempts, with three hitting the target. His chances carry a combined value of 1.59 xG.
His creative output has been stronger. Gibbs-White has produced 14 chances and recorded 1.42 xA, giving him a direct role in Forest's best attacking periods.
He scored during the 2-2 draw at Liverpool before creating seven opportunities against Aston Villa. Another six followed in the defeat against Coventry, meaning he has supplied 13 chances across his last two appearances.
Palace have struggled to prevent opponents progressing through central areas. Gibbs-White should find space behind Quinten Timber and Adam Wharton, especially when the home wing-backs move forward.
Predicted lineups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Benitez, Richards, Mingueza, Canvot, Osorio, Timber, Wharton, Mitchell, Kamada, Pino, Strand Larsen.
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1): Sels, Cunha, Diomande, Murillo, Munoz, Schlager, McAtee, Williams, Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Delap.
Anything else catch the eye
Under 2.5 goals is the best bet at 10/11.
Forest's defensive performance provides the starting point. They have conceded five goals from five matches and limited opponents to 15 shots on target. Liverpool are the only team to score more than once against them.
Their three fixtures against Leeds, Tottenham and Coventry produced one goal in total. Forest controlled long periods of those matches but struggled to convert possession and shooting volume into goals.
Glasner's team have scored four times despite attempting 82 shots. Their conversion rate is 4.9%, with only 17 efforts hitting the target. Those numbers point towards limited finishing rather than a lack of territorial control.
Palace carry less attacking threat without Mateta. Strand Larsen has scored once from six attempts, while Pino remains without a goal after five appearances. The expected front three have combined for limited end product during the opening weeks.
The hosts should also approach this game with greater defensive caution. Their clean sheet at Leeds followed four matches in which their open structure repeatedly exposed the back three. Pierre Sage has a reason to retain the more controlled shape used at Elland Road.
Forest possess the stronger underlying profile, but their failure to score against Leeds, Tottenham and Coventry makes an away victory less secure than the performance data suggests. The goals market removes the need for either side to convert territorial superiority into three points.
The head-to-head record reinforces the selection without forming its main basis. These teams have repeatedly cancelled each other out, with neither producing enough attacking quality to create separation.
Forest should control more of the chances, while Palace's attacking absences reduce the likelihood of an open home performance. A narrow away win or another low-scoring draw looks more likely than a match containing three goals.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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