UEFA Europa League semi-final action arrives on Thursday night as Nottingham Forest host Aston Villa at the City Ground in a huge all-English first leg.
Two former European champions are chasing a place in the final, and both clubs come into this tie with strong belief after impressive continental campaigns.
Forest have taken a demanding route to the last four. They finished 13th in the league phase on 14 points, then beat Fenerbahce 4-2 on aggregate, edged past Midtjylland after extra time and penalties, and followed that by eliminating Porto 2-1 across two legs.
That run shows resilience, but their underlying numbers suggest they are stronger than their seeding. Forest ranked first on xPTS with 19.1 and also led the competition for xG with 27.8. They have created 44 big chances, the most of any side left in the tournament, while their 414 touches in the opposition box rank second overall.
The City Ground has been a major asset. Forest have scored 13 home goals in seven Europa League matches, averaging 1.86 per game, while conceding only six. They have also kept four home clean sheets, showing they can pair attacking pressure with defensive control.
Villa arrive with elite momentum. They finished second in the league phase with 21 points after winning seven of eight games, then beat Lille 3-0 on aggregate before dismantling Bologna 7-1 in the quarter-finals. Their last nine European wins in a row underline the level they are reaching.
Unai Emery’s side have scored 24 goals in 12 Europa League matches and have been ruthless in front of goal. Villa have also travelled well, scoring 10 goals in six away ties while failing to score in none of them. With Forest’s home strength meeting Villa’s experience and form, this first leg looks finely balanced.
How the bookies view it: Tricky Trees slight favourites
Nottingham Forest are priced at 156/100 in the match winner market, which equates to a 39.06% implied probability of a home victory. Aston Villa are available at 19/10, representing a 34.48% implied probability of an away win. The draw is priced at 23/10, which implies a 30.30% probability.
The goals market suggests a balanced chance of a higher-scoring contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/1, which converts to a 50.00% implied probability of at least three goals.
Both teams to score is priced at 4/5, representing a 55.56% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Visitors hold the edge
Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa have met 15 times across the listed sample, with Aston Villa holding the stronger record. Villa have won seven times, Forest three, with five draws, while goals favour Villa by 31-24.
The last three clashes have produced a 1-1 draw at the City Ground earlier this month, a 3-1 Villa home win in January, and a 2-1 Villa success last season. Four of the last five meetings have seen both teams score, showing regular threat at each end.
The average goals figure across the 15 games is 3.67, which points to fixtures carrying consistent attacking output rather than cagey affairs. Five of the last six competitive meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, while four of the last five have landed both teams to score.
Players to watch: Gibbs White in form of his life
Morgan Gibbs-White is a strong pick for 1+ shot on target in this Europa League semi-final. Since the turn of the year he has scored 12 goals in 24 matches, showing consistent end product and confidence in front of goal.
Across those games he has taken 104 shots, with 42 on target, averages of 4.33 shots and 1.75 shots on target per match. He has already cleared this line in both meetings with Aston Villa in 2026.
At Villa Park he produced two shots, both on target, and scored. In the recent league draw at the City Ground he had three shots and one on target. His role behind the striker gives him regular access to central areas, second balls and edge-of-box efforts.
Nottingham Forest should attack at home, which supports another busy shooting night for their main creator.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest 4-4-2: Sels, Aina, Milenkovic, Cunha, Williams, Hutchinson, Sangare, Anderson, Gibbs-White, Igor Jesus, Wood.
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne, Tielemans, Bogarde, Buendia, Rogers, McGinn, Watkins.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals stands out as the best betting angle when Nottingham Forest face Aston Villa in Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first leg at the City Ground. Both teams bring strong attacking numbers, consistent chance creation and reliable scoring records into the contest.
Forest have scored 23 goals in 14 Europa League matches and lead the competition for xG with 27.76. They also rank first for big chances created with 44, showing the quality of openings they generate rather than relying on low-value efforts.
Their shot volume is strong too, producing 232 attempts and 88 shots on target, averages of 16.19 shots and 6.14 on target per 90 minutes.
Those numbers become even more relevant at home. Forest have scored 13 goals in seven City Ground ties, averaging 1.86 per match, and have failed to score only once there. They attack with intensity, rank second for touches in the opposition box with 414 overall, and regularly force opponents onto the back foot.
Villa offer a different but equally dangerous profile. They have scored 24 goals in only 12 matches, the best return of the two sides, despite taking far fewer shots than Forest. Their finishing has been clinical, converting chances at a rate of 0.17 goals per shot. Villa average 11.58 shots and 5.17 shots on target per 90, so they do not need huge volume to score multiple times.
Away from home they remain a threat, netting 10 goals in six Europa League trips, an average of 1.67 per game, and they have scored in every away match in the competition.
Forest’s aggressive attacking style combined with Villa’s efficiency creates the ideal over 2.5 setup.
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