Crystal Palace face AZ Alkmaar on Thursday evening at Selhurst Park in the latest round of the European league phase. It is an intriguing meeting between two sides showing contrasting styles but both with encouraging underlying numbers.
Palace enter the tie after a solid start to their European campaign. They beat Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 away with 1.5–0.4 xG and dominated AEK Larnaca at home despite a 1-0 defeat, creating 1.7 xG to 0.2. Across those two games they have generated 3.2 xG and conceded only 0.6, controlling over 60% possession on average while limiting opponents to very few clear chances.
Their structure under the 3-4-3 has been stable and defensively sound, but finishing has been inconsistent.
AZ arrive in London with more volatility in their performances. They opened with a heavy 4-0 loss away to AEK Larnaca, conceding 2.6 xGA, before responding with a dominant 1-0 win over Slovan Bratislava in which they posted 3.5 xG to 0.2.
That game reflected their attacking profile well: 50 touches in the box, 26 shots, and a strong xG return despite modest possession figures. In the Eredivisie, they have been highly consistent, ranking third overall with 12.4 xG for and 6.3 xGA, holding a +6.1 xGD and a strong xPTS return of 3.0 from their European matches.
Palace’s home control contrasts with AZ’s more direct and transitional style, setting up a tactical clash between possession and penetration. Palace will look to assert dominance through territory, while AZ’s sharp movement and counterplay offer a persistent threat.
Both sides come into this game performing well below their expected attacking returns, suggesting the contest could be more open than recent score lines imply.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Crystal Palace are priced at 4/9, which implies a 69.2% chance of victory, while the draw at 4/1 carries an implied probability of 20%. AZ Alkmaar are outsiders at 32/5, giving them just a 13.5% chance according to the market.
Goals are expected to feature. Over 2.5 goals is 7/12, an implied probability of 63.2%, while both teams to score is 4/5, or 55.6%. The data supports those prices.
Recent head-to-head: First meeting
These two sides have never met before in an official competitive match.
Players to watch: Pino to finally register
Yeremi Pino looks a strong option for an anytime goalscorer bet based on his combined Premier League and European numbers. Across 10 appearances this season, he has produced 14 shots, three on target, and generated 1.5 xG with a further 1.8 xAG, showing he is regularly involved in key attacking actions.
His total of 30 shot-creating actions and six goal-creating actions highlights how often he is at the heart of Crystal Palace’s forward play. Pino averages over 1.4 shots per game and is getting into better positions, reflected in his 0.15 xG per 90 rate across both competitions.
With Palace creating 1.5 and 1.7 xG in their two European group games and their front three beginning to find rhythm, Pino’s underlying numbers point to a player due a goal. His consistent involvement in central attacking areas makes him a solid bet to find the net.
Predicted line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson; Guehi, Lacroix, Mitchell; Munoz, Lerma, Hughes, Canvot; Pino, Mateta, Sarr.
AZ Alkmaar (4-3-3): Owusu-Oduro; Kasius, Goes, Dekker, De Wit; Koopmeiners, Smit, Mijnans; Patati, Jensen, Sadiq.
Anything else catch the eye?
The data across both teams’ recent matches strongly supports backing both teams to score. Crystal Palace have created consistent attacking output in Europe, generating 1.5 and 1.7 xG in their two group matches. They have managed over 60% possession, producing 28 total shots and 14 touches in the box, yet have only scored twice.
Their 3-4-3 system keeps structure, but their xG data shows that the chances are coming it’s finishing that is lagging behind process. In the Premier League they have scored in seven of their 10 matches and conceded in six.
AZ Alkmaar’s profile mirrors that trend. Across their two group fixtures they have created 3.9 xG and conceded 2.8, underlining how open their matches tend to be. Their shot volume is significant with 26 attempts with 11 on target while 69% of their efforts and all of their goals have come from inside the box. In the Eredivisie, AZ’s process is elite, posting a +6.1 xGD at home and +5.6 away, showing attacking consistency wherever they play.
They have scored in every league game with an average of 2.18 per 90 minutes but have have conceded in 50% of their fixtures on the road.
Palace’s European opponents so far have averaged just 0.3 xG per game against them, but AZ operate at a higher offensive level, capable of creating chances from open play, set pieces, and transitions. With Palace averaging 1.6 xG and AZ 1.95 per game in Europe, the combined expected total sits above three comfortably within the range for both sides to find the net.
Both teams have underperformed their finishing metrics, and regression should favour goals. Palace’s control and AZ’s directness make this stylistically balanced, with both likely to carve openings.
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