Bayer Leverkusen host Arsenal on Tuesday at the BayArena in the UEFA Champions League round of 16, with both sides looking to take control of the tie before the return leg in London.
Arsenal arrive in outstanding form in the competition. Mikel Arteta’s side won all eight of their Champions League matches in the league phase, finishing top of the table with 24 points and a +19 goal difference after scoring 23 and conceding four. That run represents Arsenal’s longest winning streak in European competition and places them among the most dominant teams in this season’s tournament.
The attacking numbers support that record. Arsenal produced 20.31 xG from 135 shots across the eight matches while hitting 63 shots on target and creating 44 big chances, the second highest total in the competition. Defensively they have been equally impressive, conceding only 6.17 xG across the campaign.
Leverkusen’s league phase campaign was less consistent. They recorded three wins, three draws and two defeats from eight matches, finishing with a -1 goal difference after scoring 13 and conceding 14. Their attacking output produced 15.28 xG from 113 shots while creating 26 big chances.
History also adds an interesting backdrop to the tie. Leverkusen have won four of their previous five UEFA knockout ties against English opposition, although their recent Champions League record at this stage is poor with only one win in their last 12 round of 16 matches.
Arsenal will be without Martin Odegaard, Ben White and Mikel Merino through injury, while Leverkusen are missing Arthur, Bade and Lucas Vazquez. Patrik Schick remains doubtful.
With Arsenal chasing a third consecutive Champions League quarter final appearance, the Gunners travel to Germany knowing a strong first leg performance could put them firmly in control of the tie.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Bayer Leverkusen are priced at 11/2 in the match winner market, which equates to a 15.38% implied probability of a home victory. The draw is available at 10/3, representing a 23.08% chance, while Arsenal are priced at 7/12, implying a 63.16% probability of an away win.
The goals markets indicate expectations of a relatively open contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/11, which converts to a 52.38% implied probability of at least three goals.
Both teams to score is available at 19/20, representing a 51.28% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Only recent previous meeting
The recent head to head record between Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen is limited but clear. The sides last met in a friendly in August 2024 and Arsenal secured a 4-1 victory.
Leverkusen managed one goal in reply but struggled to contain Arsenal’s attacking pressure. While the meeting came in a friendly, it still offers a recent reference point ahead of this Champions League tie.
Players to watch: Saka key to Gunners success
Bukayo Saka looks a strong option for 1+ shot on target.
Across six appearances in the competition this season, Saka has produced 19 shots with 10 hitting the target in 375 minutes. That averages 3.17 attempts and 1.67 shots on target per match, highlighting his consistent involvement in Arsenal’s attacking play.
The numbers improve when he starts. Saka has started four Champions League matches and recorded at least one shot on target in all four.
His most productive performance came away to Slavia Prague where he scored once from six shots, five of which were on target. He also registered shots on target in matches against Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Inter.
Across the competition he has also contributed two goals and two assists, showing his influence in the final third.
Predicted line-ups
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Blaswich; Andrich, Quansah, Tapsoba; Culbreath, Palacios, Garcia, Grimaldo; Maza, Terrier; Kofane.
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi; Saka, Eze, Martinelli; Gyokeres.
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal to win with over 1.5 total goals stands out as a strong betting angle when they travel to Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League round of 16.
Arsenal have been the most dominant side in the competition during the league phase. They won all eight matches, scoring 23 goals and conceding only four while producing a +19 goal difference. The Gunners also opened the scoring in every one of their eight Champions League fixtures this season.
Their attacking process underlines that dominance. Arsenal generated 20.31 xG from 135 shots while hitting 63 shots on target and creating 44 big chances, the second highest total in the tournament. That attacking pressure resulted in an average of 2.88 goals per match.
Leverkusen’s defensive record suggests Arsenal will find opportunities again in this match. The Bundesliga side conceded 14 goals across their eight Champions League matches and allowed 13.07 xG against during the league phase.
There is also a significant difference in attacking production between the sides. Leverkusen generated 113 shots and 26 big chances across the campaign, well below Arsenal’s attacking output.
Arsenal’s recent scoring form in the competition strengthens the case for goals. They have scored three or more goals in each of their last six Champions League matches, highlighting the consistency of their attacking structure.
The Gunners also arrive with strong momentum after eight consecutive Champions League victories. Their ability to control matches, create high volumes of shots and generate big chances has made them one of the most productive teams in the tournament.
With Arsenal regularly scoring multiple goals and Leverkusen conceding consistently against stronger attacking sides, the combination of an Arsenal win with over 1.5 goals fits the statistical profile of the matchup.
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