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This midweek sees me focus on the Champions League and Europa Conference qualifiers from Wednesday evening.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Crvena Zvezda take a commanding 4-0 lead into the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie against Larne after producing one of the most dominant performances of the round.
The Serbian champions controlled 69% possession, attempted 25 shots to Larne's one and forced 15 efforts on target, while the hosts failed to register a single shot on target. Bruno Duarte scored twice, with Vasilije Kostov and Muhammed Cham also on target as Crvena Zvezda overwhelmed Larne throughout.
With such a commanding aggregate advantage, progression looks a formality, and some squad rotation from the hosts would be no surprise. Crvena Zvezda will win this comfortably.
Gornik Zabrze host Fenerbahce in the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie trailing only 1-0 on aggregate, although the first leg was far more one sided than the scoreline suggests.
Fenerbahce dominated with 79% possession, 15 shots to two and 1.61 xG compared with just 0.06 for Gornik Zabrze, who managed only one effort on target. Anderson Talisca's first half free kick settled the contest, but Fenerbahce also missed three big chances and could easily have won by a much wider margin.
Another performance of that level should be enough to secure progression comfortably. Fenerbahce will be too strong for Gornik Zabrze over the second leg.
Kosovo hosts the second leg of this Conference League second qualifying round tie, with KF Dukagjini looking to overturn a deficit against Lugano, and the 1-0 scoreline from the first leg undersells just how comfortable Lugano were.
The underlying data shows 72% possession, 2.47 xG from 24 shots and seven big chances against just 0.74 xG and zero big chances for Dukagjini, who also had a man sent off late on and will likely be without that player through suspension for this second leg. Renato Steffen's 31st minute goal was the difference on the night, but the underlying numbers suggest Lugano should have won by more, and Dukagjini now need to overturn a deficit while facing a side who dominated territory and chances so heavily first time round. Lugano will get the job done here.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce & Lugano all to win at 10/11 at Ladbrokes
Vienna is the setting for the second leg of this Conference League second qualifying round tie between SK Vienna and FC Santa Coloma, and the 3-1 scoreline from the first leg flatters Rapid Vienna slightly once you look under the numbers.
The underlying data has Rapid at 1.85 xG from 21 shots against Santa Coloma's 1.04 xG from 10 shots, a clear edge but not the total mismatch the aggregate suggests, and Santa Coloma actually created three big chances of their own alongside Daniel Munoz's goal.
Rapid's win came through Serge-Philippe Yao, Yusuf Demir, and a late Moulaye Haidara finish, and with 63% possession and 40 touches in the box to Santa Coloma's 13 they controlled the game for long spells even if the Andorrans had their moments.
A three-goal cushion should still be plenty for Rapid at home. SK Vienna to win this second leg.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano & SK Vienna all to win at 1/1 at Ladbrokes
Poland stages the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie between Lech Poznan and AGF Aarhus, and the 4-1 scoreline from the first meeting in Denmark was more comfortable than the underlying performance.
The underlying data shows Lech ahead on expected goals at 1.55 to 0.98 but nowhere near the gulf in class the final score implies. Aarhus also had a man sent off during the game, which likely opened things up in the closing stages and helped Lech add to their tally against ten men. Two goals in both halves did the damage for the Poles, while Aarhus at least showed enough in the underlying numbers to suggest they are not as far off as the scoreline reads.
That cushion changes the shape of this second leg regardless, since Aarhus now need to score at least three unanswered goals in Poland just to force extra time. Lech Poznan will see this tie out comfortably.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano, SK Vienna & Lech Poznan all to win at 3/1 at Ladbrokes
Slovan Bratislava take a 2-0 lead into the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie against FC Iberia 1999, although the aggregate score arguably overstates their advantage.
Iberia controlled 67% possession in the first leg and recorded five shots on target to Slovan's four, yet failed to find the net while Slovan struck twice inside the opening half hour. The underlying numbers suggest the Georgian champions were far more competitive than the result indicates, even if their finishing proved costly.
Slovan remain favourites to progress, but Iberia have shown enough to suggest this tie is more competitive than the scoreline alone implies. Slovan Bratislava to get over the line and into the next round.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano, SK Vienna, Lech Poznan & Slovan Bratislava all to win at 6/1 at Ladbrokes
FC Copenhagen host Polissya Zhytomyr in the second leg of this Conference League second qualifying round tie after a remarkable 3-3 draw in Ukraine.
The scoreline flattered the hosts. FC Copenhagen produced 2.87 xG from 20 shots and created six big chances, while limiting Polissya to just 0.87 xG and no big chances.
Despite that, Oleksii Krasnopir, Oleksandr Fedor and Mykola Filippov all found the net. Mohamed Elyounoussi scored twice for Copenhagen before Victor Froholdt added the third. The underlying numbers strongly favour the Danish side, who look well placed to take control on home soil. FC Copenhagen will have far more control of this second leg at home.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano, SK Vienna, Lech Poznan, Slovan Bratislava & FC Copenhagen all to win at 11/1 at Ladbrokes
Kairat Almaty host Omonia Nicosia in the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie trailing 1-0 on aggregate, despite producing the stronger display in Cyprus.
Kairat dominated the underlying numbers with 63% possession, 12 shots to five and 10 corners to just one, but Panagiotis Andreou's early goal proved enough to hand Omonia the advantage. The Kazakh champions controlled long spells without finding a breakthrough, making the final scoreline look harsh on the balance of play.
Those underlying numbers should give Kairat confidence heading into the return leg, while Omonia know another disciplined defensive display will secure progression. Kairat Almaty will get the win they need here.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano, SK Vienna, Lech Poznan, Slovan Bratislava, FC Copenhagen & Kairat Almaty all to win at 24/1 at Coral
CS Universitatea Craiova trail Levski Sofia 1-0 heading into the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie, despite edging much of the play in Bulgaria.
Craiova enjoyed 57% possession and outshot their opponents nine to eight, but Marin Petkov's side made their early pressure count when Kristian Dimitrov scored after eight minutes. Levski then defended their advantage well, registering four shots on target to Craiova's one.
The Romanian side controlled territory for long spells and should take encouragement from the underlying numbers, although greater ruthlessness in front of goal is essential if they are to overturn the deficit. CS U Craiova to win here.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano, SK Vienna, Lech Poznan, Slovan Bratislava, FC Copenhagen, Kairat Almaty & CS U Craiova all to win at 48/1 at Coral
FK Kauno Zalgiris host Klaksvik in the second leg of this Champions League second qualifying round tie after a goalless first meeting in the Faroe Islands.
The scoreline masked a clear territorial advantage for Klaksvik, who enjoyed 56% possession, outshot the Lithuanian side 10 to four and registered seven shots on target, while Kauno Zalgiris failed to test the goalkeeper once. That lack of attacking threat is a concern heading into the return leg, particularly with Kauno Zalgiris playing away from their usual home ground.
Klaksvik created the better opportunities and will travel believing they have the edge if they reproduce that performance. FK Kauno Zalgiris to get the win they need on home soil.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Lugano, SK Vienna, Lech Poznan, Slovan Bratislava, FC Copenhagen, Kairat Almaty, CS U Craiova & FK Kauno Zalgiris all to win at 83/1 at Coral
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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