Monteiro vs Monfils Prediction and Betting Tips

An exciting encounter headlines the first day of action at the Rome Masters this Wednesday, with man-of-the-hour Thiago Monteiro taking on everyone’s favourite Frenchman, Gael Monfils. 

Monteiro comes to Rome off the back of a career-best run at the Masters 1000 in Madrid, successfully navigating qualifying before making a run to the third round. Along the way, he claimed the scalp of Monte-Carlo champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, defeating the world No 7 in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4.

Monfils has had fewer highlights recently, with the 37-year-old going off the boil slightly in the last six weeks. However, earlier this year, the former No 6 put together an impressive Sunshine Double, making the round of 16 and 32 respectively as he picked up wins over the likes of Hubert Hurkacz and Cameron Norrie.

Can Monteiro continue his momentum from Madrid? Or will Monfils bounce back after a slow patch? Read on for our Monteiro vs Monfils prediction and betting tips.

How the Bookies View It: No Love for Monfils

Given that this is a clash between a border-line top 30 player in Monfils, and a player currently outside of the world’s top 100 in Monteiro, it’s surprising to see the bookies’ odds on this clash. The Brazilian is given a fair edge, with bookmakers putting Monteiro’s odds at 8/13, ahead on Monfils at 13/10. Set betting has the most likely outcome a 2-0 in favour of Monteiro, returning 6/4.

Recent Head-to-Head: Monteiro Has the Edge

Partially explaining these odds is the head-to-head between these two. The pair have met three times, with Monteiro leading the rivalry 2-1 including their last two matches. Their most recent meeting was in 2022 on the hard courts of Adelaide, where Monteiro won after Monfils retired in the third set. Before this, they’d shared a win each on clay, both going the distance.

Anything Else Catch the Eye?

Monteiro has been playing a lot of tennis recently, having qualified in Madrid and now Rome. This can go one of two ways: confidence, or fatigue. Given that the Brazilian is used to grinding it out on the Challenger Tour week-in and week-out, we’re not too concerned about the volume of his tennis. 

What does stand out, is the fact that Monteiro is coming into Rome off the back of a career-best victory over Tsitsipas. Often big wins like this can be a little challenging to back up, particularly since world No 106 Monteiro isn’t used to being the favourite against someone like Monfils.

Another stat that stands out heading into this clash is Monfils’ record in Rome. The Frenchman hasn’t won here since 2012, with five first rounds exits in a row since then. On his first ever appearance at the Rome Masters, however, he made the semi-finals way back in 2006.

Monteiro vs Monfils Betting Tips & Predictions

It goes a little against the grain, but we expect Monfils to prevail in this clash. He’s been dormant for too long, and should win this one convincingly. Here are our top Monteiro vs Monfils betting tips:

  • Monfils to win @ 13/10
  • Monfils total games over 12.5 @ 1/1

Think the veteran can get it done? Get your bets in quick before the first ball is served today.

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