Day one of the Rome Masters sees two veteran work horses of the ATP Tour square off, as Brit Dan Evans takes on Italy’s Fabio Fognini. Neither player is expected to be a title threat, but there’s still plenty in this match for each.

Fognini comes into this clash in the twilight of his career at age 36. The Italian has played an incredible 16 times at the Rome Masters for a record of 15-16, with his best result being a quarter-final finish in 2018. His days of playing big tournaments in front of home crowds are limited, particularly considering he’s recently been competing on the Challenger Tour–and losing.

For Evans, he’s a little closer to the prime of his career, but is still no spring chicken at age 33. The Brit had a strong campaign in 2023 with wins over the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Frances Tiafoe en route to a maiden ATP 500 title in Washington. However, he’s on a rough patch of form now following a calf injury, and has won just one of his last eight matches, including four losses in a row leading into Rome.

Who prevails in this first round clash of veterans? Read on for our Evans vs Fognini prediction and betting tips.

How the Bookies View It: Home Hero Favoured

Despite Fognini coming in at No 92 in the rankings and Evans sitting a good 25 spots higher at No 67 in the world, the Italian is favoured in this match. Bookmakers are paying 4/7 for a Fognini victory, while Evans is sitting at 11/8. Set betting has the most likely outcome a 2-0 win to Fognini, with this margin returning 6/4.

Recent Head-to-Head: Nothing to See Here

Evans and Fognini have met just once on the ATP Tour. This was four years ago, on a hard court in Dubai, so little can be read into the result. Evans came away victorious in that clash, winning 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.

Anything Else Catch the Eye?

Both players have poor first round records in Rome. While Fognini has 15 victories at this tournament over the years, with several deep runs, he has also exited in the first round on seven different occasions. For Evans, it’s no better: the Brit is yet to win at Foro Italico in six attempts.

Home court motivation could be a big factor here. Fognini may well not get another opportunity to play in Rome. The Italian has been seriously overshadowed by his big-hitting younger compatriot Jannik Sinner in recent years, but with Sinner’s absence this week, it could be time for Fognini to have one last hurrah.

In saying this, the calibre of players that Fognini and Evans have been losing to differs this year. For Evans, while he’s 3-10 in 2024, the majority of his losses have been to top 50 players. Fognini, on the other hand, has lost to five players outside the world’s top 100 so far in 2024.

Evans vs Fognini Betting Tips & Predictions

Crack out the popcorn, because we say this one will be tight. Here are our top Evans vs Fognini betting tips:

  • Fognini to win @ 4/7
  • Three sets total @ 11/10 

For the juiciest return, combine these two bets and back Fognini to get it done 2-1 for a return of 13/5.


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