Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
We completed the challenge last time out and how route to 1,000 can be found here: MFT 10 – 1000 Betting Challenge: Complete: This is how we did it.
We have now won our last 26 bets across the two challenges.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI. As per our own rules we reset the betting balance back to 100 units on Bet17.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Ipswich beat Palace 3-2, but we only needed two match goals for our bet to win and there was three in the opening 45 minutes.
Bet 5 – IK Start vs SK Brann – Sunday 13th September at 3pm
Start and Brann meet in the Eliteserien on Sunday, with the numbers pointing towards at least two goals and a strong chance of a third. The Asian over 2 goals line also provides protection if the match finishes with exactly two.
Start have seen over 1.5 goals land in 18 of their 19 league matches. Eight of their nine home games have reached two goals, but only four have produced three or more. That difference makes over 2 goals more attractive than the standard over 2.5 line.
Brann bring the stronger attacking record. They average 1.95 goals and 1.79 xG per game, scoring in 17 of 19 fixtures. Their nine away matches have averaged 3.67 goals, with Brann scoring 2.11 and conceding 1.56. Eight reached at least two goals and seven went beyond this line.
The underlying home and away figures support another open contest. Start's home matches average 3.36 combined xG, while Brann's away games average 3.64. Start have conceded in eight of nine at home and Brann have scored in eight of nine on the road.
Brann won the reverse fixture 2-1 in July, when the teams combined for 3.00 xG. Across the relevant home and away splits, over 2 goals would have won in 11 of 18 matches, pushed in five and lost in only two.
Over 2 goals offers a stronger price than over 1.5 while retaining protection around a common scoreline.
- Bet: Over 2 goal line
- Odds: 1/4
- Bank: 21.49 units returns 26.64
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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