EFL Tips: Cambridge vs Plymouth, MK Dons vs Fleetwood and Harrogate vs Northampton

EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.

Cambridge vs Plymouth

The Pilgrims dropped their first home points last time out and they will want to bounce back as they have Ipswich and Sheff Wednesday closing in on them. They were a little unlucky to lose, winning the xG 1.42 v 1.1 and the shot count 15 vs 13. Away from home they have a record of W4-D4-L2 and whilst they have struggled to keep goals out, they have scored in every away game, finding the net twice or more on six occasions.

Only one other side has scored more goals on the road or had more shots on target in the box. Across their team, they have some real attacking quality with Mumba Bali at wing-back, and Whittaker, Ennis and Hardie leading the line.

Cambridge are now in a real downturn of results. Since mid-September, they have a record of W2-D1-L10. Over these 13 games, they have failed to score in eight, conceding an average of 1.60 whilst scoring 0.65. The Us have failed to win in their last 6 home games and hasn’t scored over these games either. Over the season they have kept just 3 home clean sheets of which two have come against MK Dons who sit 22nd and Lincoln who are 12th. Cambridge when facing sides that sit 9th and above at the Abbey Stadium have a record of W0-D1-L4 scoring a total of 0, and conceding 8.

Plymouth -0.25AH at 22/25 with BetVictor

Milton Keynes vs Fleetwood

I am going to back goals at Milton Keynes with the Dons welcome Fleetwood. The visitors have seen both teams to score in 80% of their away games this season, finding the net in all 10 games. Last time out they went to Ipswich and were the better side for large spells in the 2nd half and were worthy of their equalizer. They always find a way to score despite a xG of just 0.78, although they do sit 9th for shots on target taken at 3.70 per game.

MK are struggling this season with just four wins all season, but things have slightly improved over the recent weeks. They have found the net in nine of their last 11 games and have lost just twice in their last 5 games. Yet over this season its now just three clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.53 goals per game. They have lost 7 of their 10 games at home, conceding in all 10, but finding the net in 6. However, they have been shut out by Sheff Wed, Bolton, Bristol Rovers, and Wycombe – 2 of these sit in the top four in the table and other one in the top half.

Both teams to score can be backed at 91/100 with Bet365

Harrogate vs Northampton

Harrogate and Northampton should be a competitive game with both sides needing the points for different reasons. The hosts are just five points ahead of 2nd bottom Gillingham, whilst the Cobblers are 3rd, 5 points ahead of 4th placed Barrow, but four points behind Stevenage in 2nd.

Northampton have collected at least 10 booking points all of their away games this season, averaging 22 per game on their travels. They have played 20 league games this season with an average of 20.95, collecting at least 10 booking points in 19 of their 20 games. They have also seen 70% of their opponents to collect at least 10 booking points

Harrogate are not prolific at collecting booking points with an average of 14 per home game, collecting 10 or more in 60%, but they have Thomas Parsons in charge on Saturday. Parsons is a card specialist. He has taken charge of eight EFL games this season with an average of 54.38, handing out 40 or more in 63%. In League Two his average is 52.5 with 30+ landing in 5 of 6 games, both sides 10+ each in 5 of 6 and 40+ booking points in 4 games.