World Cup Group D Guide, Predictions & Odds

Group D at the 2026 World Cup was one of the more unpredictable sections of the tournament, with the United States, Paraguay, Australia and Turkey all believing they had a realistic shot at reaching the knockout rounds.

There was pressure on the hosts to deliver in front of home support, while the likes of Paraguay and Australia were capable of an upset, while Turkey carried plenty of attacking quality.

However, after the completion of the group stage, MrFixitsTips takes a look at Group D in full, including the odds and predictions on who made it to the next round.

Which teams are in Group D of the 2026 World Cup?

United States

There is always enormous expectation surrounding the United States at home tournaments, and with Mauricio Pochettino now in charge, belief around the national team has risen significantly over the past year.

The Americans qualified as hosts and have assembled arguably their most technically gifted squad in modern history. Christian Pulisic continues to lead from the front, while players such as Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun provide genuine quality in attacking areas.

However, the United States have shown on several occasions that they find it difficult against strong opponents, as evident in their recent losses to Portugal, Belgium and Germany in pre-tournament friendlies, with Pochettino's side also beaten by Germany just days before the tournament kicked off.

After making a huge statement with a 4-1 victory over Paraguay in their opening match, the United States followed it up with an impressive 2-0 win over Australia on matchday two to secure their place in the knockout rounds.

Pochettino's side controlled large portions of the contest and showed the maturity expected of one of the tournament's hosts, extending their perfect start to six points from two matches.

Their hopes of completing a flawless group campaign were dented on matchday three, however, as they suffered a thrilling 3-2 defeat to Turkey.

Despite the setback, the Americans still finished top of Group D on six points thanks to their superior earlier results, setting up a Round of 32 clash with Bosnia and Herzegovina in Santa Clara.

Paraguay

Paraguay are quietly becoming one of the more awkward teams to face in international football, and they were touted to emerge as the surprise package in this group, given how they navigated the qualifiers, picking up results against some of the continent's heavyweights.

Under Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay rediscovered the defensive resilience that defined some of their most successful generations, but their World Cup campaign began in disappointing fashion with a heavy 4-1 defeat to the United States.

However, La Albirroja responded brilliantly on matchday two, edging past Turkey 1-0 in a tense encounter to reignite their hopes of progressing from the group.

Paraguay then played out a goalless draw with Australia on matchday three. While the result saw them finish behind the Socceroos on goal difference, four points proved enough for La Albirroja to progress as one of the tournament's eight best third-placed teams. Their reward is a daunting Round of 32 meeting with Germany, one of the favourites for the title.

Australia

Australia reached the round of 16 in Qatar and arrived in North America determined to at least match that achievement.

Tony Popovic's side produced one of the shocks of the opening round when they defeated Turkey 2-0 despite spending much of the match without possession. Their disciplined defending and ruthless counter-attacking earned widespread praise and placed them level on points with the United States.

However, the Socceroos were unable to build on that momentum in their second outing, falling to a 2-0 defeat against the United States.

Australia secured the point they needed on matchday three, battling to a disciplined goalless draw with Paraguay.

The stalemate lifted the Socceroos to second place in Group D on goal difference, ensuring back-to-back appearances in the World Cup knockout rounds. Popovic's side will now face Egypt in the Round of 32 as they look to equal or better their run from Qatar.

Turkey

Turkey arrived at the World Cup with considerable optimism surrounding a talented generation led by Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu.

However, Vincenzo Montella's side endured a difficult start to the tournament. They were initially beaten 2-0 by Australia despite dominating possession and creating numerous opportunities, and matters worsened on matchday two with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Paraguay.

The Crescent Stars once again struggled to convert their superiority into goals, leaving them pointless after two matches despite often producing attractive attacking football.

Already eliminated before the final round, Turkey at least departed the tournament with their heads held high after producing one of the biggest upsets of matchday three, defeating group winners the United States 3-2.

The victory ultimately came too late to salvage their campaign, as they finished fourth in Group D with three points and were eliminated at the group stage.

2026 World Cup Group D group winners and qualification predictions

The United States were slight favourites to top Group D, with Mauricio Pochettino's side improving their odds after the first two matchdays.

Turkey were viewed as their biggest challengers, but that changed after Australia's win over the Turks, with the Socceroos rising to become second-favourite, while Paraguay had the lowest probability.

While USA lived up to pre-tournament prediction, the Turks faltered and finished bottom of the group. Australia and Paraguay both qualified, with the Aussies clinching second.

If you are planning to follow the tournament from a betting perspective, then be sure to also check out our guide to the best World Cup betting apps ahead of kickoff.

2026 World Cup Group D fixtures and odds

Matchday 1

The USA were priced as favourites against Paraguay, and justified that status with a dominant 4-1 victory. The margin of victory was larger than expected, but the market correctly identified the Americans as the more likely winners.

However, it was not the same for Turkey, who were strong favourites at around a 57% implied probability, only for Australia to produce one of the surprises of Matchday 1, winning 2-0 despite Turkey dominating possession and creating far more chances.

Matchday 2

The USA were clear favourites with an implied probability of around 62%, and they delivered a professional victory. Australia had impressed by beating Turkey on Matchday 1, but the bookmakers still favoured the Americans and were proven right.

Turkey were favourites despite their opening defeat to Australia, while Paraguay were viewed as outsiders after losing heavily to the USA. Instead, Paraguay produced one of the bigger surprises of Matchday 2 by taking all three points and eliminating Turkey from contention.

Matchday 3

Despite Turkey being slight favourites, the market viewed this as a very evenly balanced contest, with the USA only marginally behind in the betting. The Americans ultimately proved too strong, securing top spot in the group with a convincing victory. Given how close the odds were, the result was not a major surprise.

Paraguay were narrow favourites and justified that billing with a hard-fought win. Australia had exceeded expectations earlier in the tournament, but Paraguay's victory reflected the bookmakers' belief that they had regained momentum after beating Turkey on Matchday 2.

Confirmed finishing order

• United States
• Australia
• Paraguay
• Turkey

Group D best bets

Group D looked far tighter than several of the other World Cup groups, which created value in the match-by-match markets throughout the tournament. 

Just as we advised, the dual forecast of USA and Australia to qualify at 61/100 on Bet365 proved to be a good bet.

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