Group D at the 2026 World Cup is one of the more unpredictable sections of the tournament, with the United States, Paraguay, Australia and Turkey all believing they have a realistic shot at reaching the knockout rounds.
There is pressure on the hosts to deliver in front of home support, the likes of Paraguay and Australia are capable of an upset, while Turkey carrying plenty of attacking quality.
However, after the first round of games, MrFixitsTips takes a look at Group D in full, including the remaining fixtures, odds and predictions on who makes it to the next round.
Which teams are in Group D of the 2026 World Cup?
United States
There is always enormous expectation surrounding the United States at home tournaments, and with Mauricio Pochettino now in charge, belief around the national team has risen significantly over the past year.
The Americans qualified as hosts and have assembled arguably their most technically gifted squad in modern history. Christian Pulisic continues to lead from the front, while players such as Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun provide genuine quality in attacking areas.
However, the United States have shown on several occasions that they find it difficult against strong opponents, as evident in their recent losses to Portugal, Belgium and Germany in pre-tournament friendlies, with Pochettino's side also beaten by Germany just days before the tournament kicked off.
After making a huge statement with a 4-1 victory over Paraguay in their opening match, the United States followed it up with an impressive 2-0 win over Australia on matchday two to secure their place in the knockout rounds.
Pochettino's side controlled large portions of the contest and showed the maturity expected of one of the tournament's hosts, extending their perfect start to six points from two matches. The victory leaves the Americans firmly in control of Group D heading into their final fixture against Turkey, and they will now look to stay perfect.
Paraguay
Paraguay are quietly becoming one of the more awkward teams to face in international football, and they were touted to emerge as the surprise package in this group, given how they navigated the qualifiers, picking up results against some of the continent's heavyweights.
Under Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay rediscovered the defensive resilience that defined some of their most successful generations, but their World Cup campaign began in disappointing fashion with a heavy 4-1 defeat to the United States.
However, La Albirroja responded brilliantly on matchday two, edging past Turkey 1-0 in a tense encounter to reignite their hopes of progressing from the group.
The victory moved Paraguay onto three points and leaves qualification firmly within their grasp heading into the final round of fixtures. With Australia also sitting on three points, their showdown could effectively become a winner-takes-all battle for a place in the knockout stages.
Australia
Australia reached the round of 16 in Qatar and arrived in North America determined to at least match that achievement.
Tony Popovic's side produced one of the shocks of the opening round when they defeated Turkey 2-0 despite spending much of the match without possession. Their disciplined defending and ruthless counter-attacking earned widespread praise and placed them level on points with the United States.
However, the Socceroos were unable to build on that momentum in their second outing, falling to a 2-0 defeat against the United States.
Despite the setback, Australia remain firmly in contention for qualification with three points from two matches. Their final group fixture against Paraguay is now likely to determine whether they advance to the knockout rounds, a direct battle for qualification in Group D.
Turkey
Turkey arrived at the World Cup with considerable optimism surrounding a talented generation led by Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu.
However, Vincenzo Montella's side have endured a difficult start to the tournament. They were initially beaten 2-0 by Australia despite dominating possession and creating numerous opportunities, and matters worsened on matchday two with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Paraguay.
The Crescent Stars once again struggled to convert their superiority into goals, leaving them pointless after two matches despite often producing attractive attacking football.
Turkey now have no chance of making it to the round of 32 heading into their final group game against the United States. While they entered the tournament as the top playoff winners and slight favorites to advance, those two losses have ended their campaign prematurely.
2026 World Cup Group D group winners and qualification predictions
Group D winner odds
- United States – 2/5
- Australia – 4/1
- Paraguay – 28/1
- Turkey – N/A
2026 World Cup Group D qualification odds
- United States – N/A
- Australia – 1/10
- Paraguay – 1/10
- Turkey – N/A
Before the start of the tournament, the bookmakers expected the United States and Turkey to reach the knockout rounds, but following the results after the first two matchdays, Turkey sit bottom of the group and are now eliminated, leaving Australia and Paraguay battling directly for the other top-two spot.
2026 World Cup Group D fixtures and odds
Matchday 1
The USA were priced as favourites against Paraguay, and justified that status with a dominant 4-1 victory. The margin of victory was larger than expected, but the market correctly identified the Americans as the more likely winners.
However, it was not the same for Turkey, who were strong favourites at around a 57% implied probability, only for Australia to produce one of the surprises of Matchday 1, winning 2-0 despite Turkey dominating possession and creating far more chances.
Matchday 2
The USA were clear favourites with an implied probability of around 62%, and they delivered a professional victory. Australia had impressed by beating Turkey on Matchday 1, but the bookmakers still favoured the Americans and were proven right.
Turkey were favourites despite their opening defeat to Australia, while Paraguay were viewed as outsiders after losing heavily to the USA. Instead, Paraguay produced one of the bigger surprises of Matchday 2 by taking all three points and eliminating Turkey from contention.
Matchday 3
Turkey vs United States
- Turkey: 7/4
- Draw: 5/2
- United States: 31/20
Paraguay vs Australia
- Paraguay: 6/5
- Draw: 23/10
- Australia: 13/5
Note: All above odds were correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
The United States remain favourites to top Group D at 2/5, with Mauricio Pochettino's side improving their odds thanks to the convincing victory over Paraguay.
Turkey were viewed as their biggest challengers, but that has changed after Australia's win over the Turks, with the Socceroos now second-favourite, while Paraguay remain with the lowest probability.
If you are planning to follow the tournament from a betting perspective, then be sure to also check out our guide to the best World Cup betting apps ahead of kickoff.
Predicted finishing order
- United States
- Australia
- Turkey
- Paraguay
Group D best bets
Group D looks far tighter than several of the other World Cup groups, which could create value in the match-by-match markets throughout the tournament.
The dual forecast of USA and Australia to qualify at 61/100 on Bet365 looks like a decent bet right now, while Australia to win the group at 7/2 holds a lot of value.
Cole is a passionate sports writer with a love for storytelling. He covers global sporting events with a focus on insight, accuracy, and engaging analysis. Known for his clear writing style and balanced opinions, Cole brings every headline to life for readers.
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