Sky Super 6 challenge

We already see a number of bookmakers offering punters some great prizes for correctly guessing six scores in upcoming Premier League games.

With that in mind, we have decided to take up the Super 6 Challenge.

Here are this week's selections.

Our Super 6 Challenge predictions

Sunderland vs Man Utd

Saturday's clash at the Stadium of Light pits a Sunderland side fighting for mid-table respectability against a Manchester United team whose away form has been one of the stories of the season.

United have won six of their last eight away xG battles and carry an away xPTS of 13.77 across that period, the strongest of any away side in these fixtures. Sunderland's home xPTS of just 4.19 in the last four home games tells its own story, and their npxG of 0.75 at home in that window is one of the lowest figures in the division.

United's away npxG of 1.02 against Sunderland's leaky home defence points clearly in one direction. United have the quality and the motivation to take all three points here.

Score 0-2 at 17/2 with Skybet

Brighton vs Wolves

A already relegated Wolves side travel to the Amex on Saturday with nothing left to play for, facing a Brighton team with genuine European ambitions and the form to match.

Brighton have won nine of the last 20 meetings between these sides, averaging 1.70 goals per game to Wolves' 0.90, and their home xPTS of 8.06 in the last four home games reflects a side in excellent shape.

Wolves have failed to win a single away xG battle all season, score just 0.41 goals per away game and fail to score in 65% of their away fixtures.
Brighton's superior xG, shots on target and big chance data make this a straightforward home win. The only question is the margin.

Score 2-0 at 11/2 with Skybet

Fulham vs Bournemouth

European football is the prize Bournemouth are chasing, and they arrive at Craven Cottage in the kind of form that suggests they mean business.

Their away xPTS of 14.79 across the last eight games is the highest of any away side across Saturday's fixtures, and they have created 12 big chances in their last eight away matches.

Fulham's home numbers tell a contrasting story. Their xPTS of just 2.62 in the last four home games is one of the lowest in the division, and they have created zero big chances at home in that period.

Bournemouth's npxG of 1.86 away in the last four against Fulham's xGA of 2.16 at home makes for a compelling away win case. Bournemouth's European push looks set to continue here.

Score 0-2 at 12/1 with Skybet

Man City vs Brentford

Manchester City simply have to win this game.

With Arsenal five points clear at the top, anything other than three points would effectively end City's title challenge, and Pep Guardiola's side have the home numbers to deliver.

Their home xPTS of 16.17 across the last eight games is the highest of any home side in Saturday's fixtures, and they have won 93.8% of their home xG battles this season. Brentford have European ambitions of their own and will not capitulate easily.

Their away xPTS of 14.05 across the last eight is a respectable figure, and they have kept four clean sheets in their last eight away games.

City's superior firepower at home should ultimately prove decisive in what could be an absorbing contest.

Score 2-1 at 7/1 with Skybet

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Utd

Forest arrive at the City Ground having picked up 15 points from their last eight home games, backing that up with a home xPTS of 10.80 in that period.

They have kept three clean sheets in their last eight home matches and concede just 1.19 xGA per game at home across that window. Newcastle, by contrast, are in alarming form, conceding 2.16 xGA per away game across the last eight, the worst figure of any away side in Saturday's fixtures.

They have won just three of their last eight away xG battles and have conceded 14 big chances away in that period. Forest's tight defensive structure at home against a Newcastle side leaking chances on the road makes this a comfortable home win on paper.

Score 2-0 at 12/1 with Skybet

West Ham vs Arsenal

Arsenal arrive at the London Stadium on the back of a Champions League semi-final victory on Tuesday night, with all the momentum and confidence that brings.

Their away xPTS of 15.06 across the last eight games is the highest of any away side in the division, they have won 70.6% of their away xG battles this season and kept four clean sheets in their last eight away matches.

West Ham have shown improved home form recently, picking up eight points from their last four home games and registering an npxG of 2.01 at home in that window, but Arsenal's quality across every metric is difficult to argue against.

A potential fixture congestion concern for Arsenal is worth noting, but their squad depth and European form suggest they have enough to take all three points.

Score 1-2 at 13/2 with Skybet

The total odds for all six games are a massive 626,144/1 with Skybet, which may be worth a £1 stake for some fun. I am keen to back Man Utd to win 2-0 and Brighton to beat Wolves by the same score line. Combining these two games combined gives you odds of 61/1 with Skybet.

The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.

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