Aston Villa begin their preseason campaign at Walsall on Tuesday night after one of the most eventful summers in the club's history. Unai Emery guided Villa to the Europa League title in Istanbul, ending a 30-year wait for major silverware, before securing a fourth-place Premier League finish and Champions League qualification.
Their underlying numbers supported that success, averaging 1.35 xG and 1.22 xGA across league matches, but the celebrations have quickly been replaced by the challenge of rebuilding a squad that has changed significantly in just a few weeks.
Youri Tielemans has joined Manchester United after his £35 million release clause was triggered, a notable loss given Villa's win rate falls from 53% to 41% without him. Amadou Onana remains sidelined after rupturing his ACL during the World Cup, while Morgan Rogers is on the verge of completing a British-record £117 million move to Chelsea.
Lucas Digne also looks set to leave for Paris Saint-Germain, meaning Emery will eventually be without four established first-team players before considering those still unavailable after their World Cup commitments.
Villa have moved quickly in the market. Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi arrives for a club-record £59.5 million after impressing for Switzerland before injury ended his World Cup, while Joao Gomes has joined from Wolves in a £38 million deal and discussions continue over a loan move for Joao Palhinha. Even so, this opening friendly is likely to feature a youthful squad, with many senior internationals still absent.
Walsall also enter a new era. Lee Grant was appointed head coach following a summer overhaul after Mat Sadler's departure. The former Manchester United goalkeeper brings coaching experience gained under Sean Dyche, Eddie Howe, Jose Mourinho and Kieran McKenna, whose Ipswich side scored 101 and 92 league goals during successive promotions. Twelve players left during the summer, forcing Grant to rebuild quickly.
The recruitment has focused on experience and value. James Connolly, Andy Dallas, Lewis Simper, Jed Ward and Sven Sprangler have all arrived permanently, while Isaac Moore joins on loan from Coventry City's Under-21s. Albert Adomah remains an influential senior figure despite approaching his 39th birthday, while Alex Pattison is expected to become a key player after an encouraging end to last season.
Walsall's opening friendly ended goalless at Leamington, but Grant rotated two entirely different XIs and was encouraged by the performance. Dallas had a goal ruled out for offside, Adomah tested the goalkeeper twice and academy prospect Archie Bunn impressed from distance. Grant admitted finishing needs improvement but felt his side created enough chances to win comfortably.
They followed that with a 4-2 victory over Nottingham Forest Under-21s in a behind-closed-doors fixture split across three 30-minute periods. Andy Dallas scored twice, while Aaron Pressley and Ryan Sjoerdsma also found the net, giving Grant further encouragement before Villa's visit.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing, no odds have been released for this fixture.
Head to head: History on Villas side
History favours Aston Villa. They have won four of the nine meetings between the clubs, including a 6-0 FA Cup victory in 1912 and a 4-1 preseason win in 2018.
Walsall's only success came in January 1971, while recent friendlies have been much closer, producing a goalless draw in 2017 and a narrow 1-0 Villa victory three years earlier.
Player to watch: Emiliano Buendia still influential player
Emiliano Buendia looks one of the most important players available to Emery for this fixture. Surprisingly overlooked by Argentina for the World Cup, he produced six goals and two assists in just 1,755 minutes last season despite starting only 21 matches.
His 49 shots and 13 efforts on target underline the creativity and goal threat he brings, and with Villa missing so many established names, much of their attacking play is likely to revolve around him.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Wright; Cash, Cisse, Mings, Iling-Junior; Bogarde, Hemmings; Bailey, Buendia, Jimoh-Aloba; Abraham.
Walsall (4-4-2): Ward; Browne, Burke, Harris, Harper; Adomah, Worrall, Moore, Sjoerdsma; Pressley, Dallas.
Anything else catch the eye?
My bet is Aston Villa to win and over 1.5 goals, with the price still to be confirmed.
Preseason friendlies are rarely straightforward, and Villa arrive without several first-team players because of transfers, injuries and extended breaks following the World Cup. Financial Fair Play considerations have also forced significant changes to the squad, leaving Emery with a much thinner group than he would ideally want for his opening fixture.
Walsall should be competitive. Grant has already begun implementing his ideas, his new signings have valuable minutes under their belts and the home crowd will create a good atmosphere. Even so, the gap in quality remains considerable. Villa's squad depth is still comfortably above League Two level, even with so many senior absentees, while Walsall are still assembling a squad that can challenge consistently under their new manager.
The result itself matters less than the fitness work at this stage of July, but Villa should still have enough quality to come through with a comfortable victory.
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