The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins in earnest for the co-hosts on Friday night as the United States take on Paraguay at a sold-out SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Expectations are high around Mauricio Pochettino's side, who have home advantage, a talented squad and a favourable opening fixture on paper. Paraguay arrive with different ambitions. Gustavo Alfaro's men are organised, disciplined and difficult to break down, and they will believe they have the tools to frustrate the hosts and make life uncomfortable from the outset.
The United States are appearing in their 12th World Cup and fourth as tournament hosts or co-hosts. Their best World Cup finish remains the semi-finals in 1930, while their most recent home tournament ended with a Round of 16 defeat against Brazil in 1994. Despite regularly qualifying for the competition, the Americans have won only nine of their 37 World Cup matches and have progressed beyond the Round of 16 only once in the modern era.
Pochettino was appointed to elevate a generation many consider the most technically gifted in the country's history. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun form the spine of a side expected to challenge deeper into the tournament than previous American teams. The build-up has not been entirely convincing though.
The USA enter the tournament having lost three of their four warm-up matches. Belgium recovered from behind to win 5-2 in Atlanta before Portugal claimed a comfortable 2-0 victory. A 3-2 success against Senegal briefly lifted confidence, but a 2-1 defeat to Germany in their final friendly highlighted familiar concerns. Defensive organisation remains a question mark and Pochettino's side have conceded nine goals across those four matches.
Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010 after one of the most impressive qualifying campaigns in South America. Their resurgence coincided with the appointment of Gustavo Alfaro following a disastrous Copa America campaign under Daniel Garnero.
Alfaro transformed the mood immediately. Paraguay defeated Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay during qualifying and pieced together an eight-match unbeaten run that ultimately secured automatic qualification. They finished with a 7-7-4 record and arrive in North America carrying momentum and belief.
How the bookies view it
USA are priced at 1/1, implying a 56% probability of victory. Paraguay are available at 17/5, implying 21%, while the draw is 5/2, implying 23%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/8 and both teams to score at 11/10.
Head to head: USA hold the edge
The United States have enjoyed the better of this fixture historically, posting five wins, two draws and two defeats across nine previous meetings.
Their first encounter came at the inaugural World Cup in 1930 when Bert Patenaude scored the tournament's first-ever hat-trick in a 3-0 American victory. Meetings have been relatively infrequent since then, but recent history favours the hosts.
The Americans have won each of the last three meetings, including a 2-1 success in Pennsylvania last November. On that occasion Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun found the net in a controlled performance that limited Paraguay's attacking opportunities.
Player to watch: Christian Pulisic to lead for the USA
Much of the United States' attacking threat continues to revolve around Pulisic. The AC Milan attacker remains the side's most creative player and the individual most capable of turning tight games through a moment of quality.
His club campaign was inconsistent. Pulisic contributed eight goal involvements and enjoyed a productive spell during the first half of the season, but his output declined after March and he failed to score in his final 12 Serie A appearances.
International football has painted a more positive picture. He produced both a goal and an assist against Senegal and looked sharp operating behind Balogun. Pochettino will be hoping that version of Pulisic appears again for this fixture.
Paraguay's compact shape is designed to deny space between the lines, making Pulisic's movement particularly important. If he can receive possession in advanced areas and turn towards goal, the Americans have runners capable of exploiting the gaps he creates.
The quality gap between Pulisic and any attacking player on the Paraguay side is significant. Over the course of 90 minutes, that difference could prove decisive.
Predicted line ups
USA 4-2-3-1: Freese; Freeman, M. Robinson, Ream, A. Robinson; Adams, McKennie; Weah, Pulisic, Tillman; Balogun.
Paraguay 4-2-3-1: Gill; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Bobadilla, Cubas; D. Gomez, Enciso, Almiron; Sanabria.
Anything else catch the eye?
Paraguay's resurgence under Gustavo Alfaro has been built on organisation, discipline and defensive resilience. They conceded only 14 goals across 18 World Cup qualifiers despite facing the likes of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, regularly operating with less than 30% possession and showing little interest in dominating the ball. Instead, Paraguay focus on protecting central areas, frustrating opponents and breaking quickly through Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso when opportunities arise.
That makes the battle in midfield particularly important. Tyler Adams will be tasked with screening the defence and preventing Paraguay from attacking through central areas. If the United States can force Paraguay wide, much of their counter-attacking threat is reduced.
Set pieces could also prove decisive. Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete are major aerial threats for Paraguay, while Weston McKennie, Miles Robinson and Folarin Balogun give the hosts plenty of presence in both boxes. Dead-ball situations look one of the most likely routes to goal for either side.
Julio Enciso's fitness remains the biggest question mark. If he starts, Paraguay possess a genuine creative spark capable of troubling the American defence. If he misses out, much of that attacking quality disappears and even more responsibility falls on Miguel Almiron.
The United States have looked vulnerable defensively throughout their recent friendlies, but they still possess superior attacking talent across the pitch and should benefit from strong home support. Paraguay are unlikely to make life comfortable, though the hosts look capable of finding the moments required to open their World Cup campaign with a victory.
GambleAware