Newcastle United host Manchester City in the FA Cup fifth round at St James’ Park on Saturday night, with an 8pm kick off in one of the standout ties of the round.
These sides have already met four times this season and familiarity adds another layer to this contest. Newcastle won the first meeting back in November but Manchester City have taken the last three, including both legs of the League Cup semi final and a recent Premier League win at the Etihad Stadium.
Newcastle arrive with some confidence after beating Manchester United despite playing with ten men for a long spell. That result came at a cost though, with Jacob Ramsey suspended after his red card. Bruno Guimaraes, Emil Krafth and Fabian Schar are also unavailable, while Sandro Tonali is expected to be fit after limping off late in midweek.
The underlying home numbers remain strong. Newcastle rank fifth in the Premier League home xPTS table with 24.58. They average 1.47 xG and allow 1.25 xGA at St James’ Park with a 54.0% xG ratio. They also produce 5.15 shots on target per home game and 8.54 shots inside the box.
Manchester City arrive second in the Premier League with 60 points and 59 goals scored in 29 matches. Pep Guardiola’s side sit third in the away xPTS table with 21.25 while producing 1.63 xG and allowing 1.10 xGA on the road.
City also arrive in solid form with a W5-D4-L1 record across their last 10 league matches. Rotation remains possible with a Champions League meeting with Real Madrid approaching.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Newcastle United are priced at 12/5 in the match winner market, which equates to a 29.41% implied probability of a home victory. The draw is available at 29/10, representing a 25.64% chance, while Manchester City are priced at 11/10, implying a 47.62% probability of an away win.
The goals markets suggest expectations of an open game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 7/12, which converts to a 63.16% implied probability of at least three goals. Both teams to score is available at 8/15, representing a 65.22% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: City have clear edge
The recent head to head record between Newcastle United and Manchester City shows a clear edge for the visitors.
Across the last 20 meetings, Manchester City have won 14 matches, with three draws and three Newcastle victories. The aggregate score across those games is 49-18 in Manchester City’s favour, an average margin of -1.55 per game from Newcastle’s perspective, with 3.35 total goals per match.
The most recent meetings reinforce that trend. Manchester City have won three of the four clashes between the sides this season. In January they secured a 2-0 win at St James’ Park in the League Cup, before completing the semi final tie with a 3-1 victory at the Etihad Stadium in February. A few weeks later they followed that with a 2-1 Premier League win.
Newcastle’s only success across those four games came in November when they beat Manchester City 2-1 at St James’ Park.
Earlier meetings show a similar pattern. Manchester City recorded a 4-0 Premier League win in February 2025 and a 2-0 FA Cup victory in March 2024.
Players to watch: Semenyo repaying his fee already
Since his transfer from AFC Bournemouth to Manchester City, Antoine Semenyo has produced consistent attacking output.
Across his recent appearances he has scored seven goals and registered two assists, showing regular involvement in Manchester City’s attacking returns. That output highlights a forward who contributes both through finishing chances and creating opportunities for teammates.
His underlying shooting numbers reinforce that involvement. Semenyo has taken 24 shots across his recent matches, with 11 of those efforts on target. That produces an average of 2.0 shots per match and 0.92 on target, highlighting a player who frequently gets into shooting positions.
Semenyo operates high up the pitch in wide attacking roles, which allows him to attack the penalty area and combine with Manchester City’s forwards and attacking midfielders. Those positions increase his chances of either finishing moves or supplying the final pass.
With seven goals, two assists and consistent shot production since joining from Bournemouth, Semenyo carries strong attacking involvement for Manchester City and looks a strong bet to score or assist.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle United (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Willock, Tonali, Joelinton; Elanga, Gordon, Barnes.
Manchester City (4-2-3-1): Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Lewis, Gonzalez; Bernardo, Cherki, Semenyo; Marmoush.
Anything else catch the eye?
Goals look likely when Newcastle United host Manchester City in the FA Cup fifth round at St James’ Park on Saturday and the data supports a bet on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Newcastle’s home matches regularly produce chances at both ends. At St James’ Park they generate 1.47 xG while allowing 1.25 xGA, producing a total expected goals figure of 2.72. They average 5.15 shots on target per home game and concede 4.31, creating a combined total of 9.46 shots on target.
The shot profile inside the box also highlights open matches. Newcastle produce 8.54 shots inside the box while allowing 7.92, a combined total of 16.46. They also create 4.08 shots on target from inside the box and concede 3.08.
Recent results reinforce those patterns. both teams to score has landed in 70% of Newcastle’s last 10 league matches and over 2.5 goals has also landed in 70%. Their last six home games produced 12 goals scored and 12 conceded.
Manchester City bring strong attacking numbers on the road. They average 1.63 xG away from home while allowing 1.10 xGA, producing a total of 2.73 xG. They also generate 7.85 shots inside the box and allow 6.85.
City’s recent matches also show attacking involvement from both teams, with both teams to score landing in 60% of their last 10 league games.
Newcastle’s attacking output at home combined with City’s chance creation on the road points toward a game with multiple chances and goals at both ends.
GambleAware