Man City vs Southampton prediction
Manchester City

Manchester City vs Southampton

, KO: 17:15 , Wembley
Southampton

The first of this weekend’s FA Cup semi-final ties sees Manchester City face Southampton at Wembley on Saturday evening.

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Pep Guardiola’s side will make the long trip south having returned to the top of the Premier League table for the first time since August, courtesy of a narrow 1-0 win over Burnley on Wednesday night.

Attention now turns to FA Cup matters, with City aiming to lift the trophy for the eighth time in their history.

Man City produced one of their standout performances of the season in the previous round, brilliantly dismantling Liverpool 4-0 to book their place in the semi-finals.

Southampton, meanwhile will be looking to pull off another FA Cup upset after stunning Arsenal 2-1 in the previous round to reach Wembley.

The Saints are also ticking along nicely in the Championship, although their automatic promotion hopes took a hit on Tuesday night when they were held to a 2-2 draw by Bristol City.

How the bookies view it: City in easy street

It's no surprise to see Manchester City come into this semi-final tie as massive 2/9 favourites on bet365.

A Southampton triumph in normal time is trading at a towering 10/1 on bet365, while the 90-minute draw is also deemed unlikely at 11/2 with the same bookmaker.

Head-to-head: History favours Man City

Manchester City and Southampton have met 99 times in all competitions, with City holding a clear advantage with 44 wins compared to Southampton’s 31, alongside 24 draws. The Saints can perhaps take some encouragement from the fact they held Manchester City to a goalless draw at home in the Premier League last season, while the reverse fixture at the Etihad saw them edged out in a narrow 1-0 defeat.

Players to watch: Haaland hot streak to continue?

Erling Haaland appears to have rediscovered his scoring touch in recent weeks, with the Manchester City goal machine as short as 4/9 (bet365) to strike at Wembley on Saturday and 21/10 (bet365) to open the scoring after netting the only goal of the game against Burnley on Wednesday night.

Caspar Jander committed 4 fouls against Arsenal in the previous round, so two or more misdemeanours here from the Southampton midfielder looks good value at 10/11 on Paddy Power. The German was also booked against the Gunners, and a repeat here appeals at 3/1 on bet365.

Predicted line-ups

Manchester City appear to have come through their midweek win over Burnley unscathed, leaving their injury list unchanged with Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias and Rodri still sidelined.

As for Southampton, they will be without injured duo Alex McCarthy and Mads Roerslev, while Flynn Downes and Ryan Manning are both suspended.

Man City: Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Bernardo, O'Reilly; Savinho, Cherki, Marmoush; Haaland

Southampton: Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Welington; Jander, Charles; Fellows, Azaz, Scienza; Stewart

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Both teams to score

Southampton’s away profile points towards both teams to score. It has landed in 20 of their 22 away matches, a 91% rate, with their games regularly producing chances at both ends. They average 1.66 xG on the road, but also allow 1.22 xGA and concede 3.86 shots on target per game.

City still carry clear attacking threat, yet their recent numbers do leave room for the opponent. Both teams to score has landed in 60% of their last 10 and 60% of their last five. Across the last eight, their matches average 2.82 total xG, while City concede 1.03 xGA.

The FA Cup semi final setting adds caution, as these games are often tighter, but Southampton’s away trend is too strong to ignore. BTTS looks a live runner.

Anything else catch the eye?

Manchester City have been winning in solid rather than spectacular fashion lately, and it may be more of the same at Wembley on Saturday evening.

That makes a City success alongside under 4.5 goals worthy of support at 4/5 on Ladbrokes.

This combination would have clicked in each of Man City's last 15 victories across all competitions.

Manchester City vs Southampton Betting Tips & Predictions
Man City Win & Under 4.5 Goals
4/5
Ladbrokes
Caspar Jander To Commit 2+ Fouls
10/11
PaddyPower
Caspar Jander To Be Carded
3/1
Bet365
Further Reading
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