Liverpool host Brentford at Anfield on Sunday afternoon in a fixture carrying far greater importance for the visitors. Arne Slot's side have already secured Champions League football and arrive after a disappointing end to the campaign, winning only four of their last 13 matches across all competitions.
Brentford head to Merseyside under Keith Andrews knowing victory is their only route into Europe, with seventh place potentially enough to secure a Europa League spot if results elsewhere fall in their favour. The contrast in motivation is significant and, with Liverpool dealing with injuries and likely rotation, Brentford have a genuine opportunity to make life difficult at Anfield.
Liverpool's recent form has fallen away sharply. Four wins from 13 matches is the return of a side that has lost momentum at the wrong stage of the season. Their recent home process has also weakened, with Liverpool creating zero big chances while conceding eight across their last four home games. Those numbers tell a very different story to the side that secured Champions League qualification earlier in the campaign.
Brentford arrive with a clear objective and the numbers suggest they are capable of competing away from home. Keith Andrews has a side built to attack and recent away performances support that approach. With European football still within reach, Brentford are expected to press aggressively and test a Liverpool side missing both form and stability.
How the bookies view it
Liverpool are priced at 17/20, implying a 54% probability of victory. Brentford are available at 3/1, implying a 25% probability, while the draw sits at 34/10, implying a 23% probability.
Both teams to score is available at 1/2, implying a 67% probability. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, implying a 67% probability.
Head to head: goals and decisive outcomes dominate
Liverpool have won six of the last nine meetings, but one detail stands out for this fixture. None of the nine meetings have finished level, with every game producing a winner.
Brentford have won two of those meetings and claimed a 3-2 victory earlier this season. Across the nine meetings, the fixture has averaged 3.44 goals per game, while both teams to score has landed in seven matches. The numbers point towards another open contest.
Player to watch: Igor Shots & fouls a constant for Thiago
Igor Thiago stands out strongly in the player markets heading into Sunday. The Brentford forward has scored 22 goals across 36 starts this season and his physical style creates opportunities both in attacking areas and through defensive duels.
The shots data provides strong support. Thiago has recorded two or more shots in 65% of his 37 appearances this season, averaging 2.22 shots per game. He also produced four shots in Brentford's 3-2 win over Liverpool earlier this season. With Brentford needing victory and likely approaching the game aggressively, opportunities should follow against a Liverpool defence lacking consistency.
The fouls numbers support the same angle. Thiago has committed two or more fouls in 23 of his 37 appearances this season, a 62% strike rate, averaging 2.03 fouls per game. His pressing role regularly pushes those numbers higher and Brentford's likely aggressive approach adds further support.
Predicted lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1: Mamardashvili, Gomez, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Jones, Szoboszlai, Ngumoha, Gakpo.
Brentford 4-2-3-1: Kelleher, Kayode, Ajer, Collins, Jensen, Janelt, Yarmoliuk, Damsgaard, Ouattara, Lewis Potter, Thiago.
Anything else catch the eye?
Brentford draw no bet stands out when the wider picture is considered. Brentford have never drawn against Liverpool across nine previous meetings, removing much of the risk usually attached to the market.
Their away numbers provide further support, with 12 big chances created across their last eight away games and an away xPTS of 12.60 over the same period. The Bees understand what is on offer for them and will be the only team fully motivated. The hosts have been poor for a number of weeks as their season limps over the finish line.
Liverpool arrive with injuries, likely rotation and little left to play for, while Brentford still have a route into Europe. The combination of motivation and recent form gives Brentford a stronger chance than the market appears to suggest.
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