Leeds v Brentford
Leeds United

Leeds United vs Brentford

, KO: 20:00 , Elland Road
Brentford

Leeds United have gone five games without a Premier League win and badly need to end that sequence when Brentford come to Elland Road.

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Daniel Farke's side have only lost four times since the end of November but sit just above the drop zone because they've been drawing far too many games.

Last weekend's stalemate away to Crystal Palace might have felt like a point gained rather than two dropped after playing for 45 minutes with just 10 men.

But if Leeds United are to stay up they will need to start getting more wins on the board, especially at Elland Road.

It won't be easy against Brentford though as the Bees are hunting down a European place at the other end of the table.

Throwing away a two-goal lead at home to rock-bottom Wolves last Monday didn't help their cause so boss Keith Andrews will be looking to bounce back with a win in Leeds.

How the bookies view it: Home hurt to end for Leeds

Leeds United have lost their last two at home in the Premier League but are still slight favourites for this one at 29/20 with Bet365. The same firm offer 5/2 on the draw while Brentford are 9/5 with most firms.

Recent head to head: Quick on the draws

There hasn't been much between these sides of late, with four of the last six meetings ending in draws. It was a 1-1 stalemate earlier this season when they faced off in London.

Players to watch: Dom back in the spotlight

Dominic Calvert-Lewin missed a penalty in Leeds' draw at Selhurst Park but still looks their best bet for a goal in this one. The striker is 6/4 with Paddy Power for anytime scorer and 49/50 at BetMGM for a goal or assist.

Dango Ouattara's dreadful Panenka penalty sent Brentford spinning out of the FA Cup but he responded well with an assist in their next game against Wolves. The powerful forward is a decent 6/4 with Bet365 for a goal or assist in this one.

Probable line-ups

Left-back Gabriel Gudmundsson is suspended for Leeds after his red card last week while Noah Okafor looks set to miss out with injury.

Brentford still have Aaron Hickey, Rico Henry, Vitaly Janelt, Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo and Josh Dasilva in the treatment room.

Leeds United: Darlow, Bogle, Justin, Struijk, Ampadu, Bijol, Aaronson, Stach, Nmecha, Gnonto, Calvert-Lewin.

Brentford: Kelleher, Kayode, Collins, Van den Berg, Lewis-Potter, Yarmoliuk, Damsgaard, Jensen, Ouattara, Schade, Thiago.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Over 2.5 goals

Leeds vs Brentford points towards over 2.5 goals with both sides producing high chance volume and showing limited defensive control.

Leeds average 1.46 NPxG at home but concede 1.38, which creates open games. Brentford follow a similar pattern away, posting 1.57 NPxG and allowing 1.22, so both teams regularly trade chances rather than control matches. Recent data strengthens the case.

Brentford generated 2.15 xG across the last four matches, while Leeds sit lower at 1.06 but still concede 1.64 xGA across the last eight. That defensive weakness keeps games live even when their attacking output dips.

Shot data supports this angle. Leeds average 6.0 SIB while Brentford produce 6.9, showing both teams get into strong scoring areas consistently. Neither side ranks strongly for defensive metrics, which increases the likelihood of multiple goals.

With both teams creating chances and allowing space at the back, three goals is a realistic expectation.

Anything else catch the eye?

Brentford can play without pressure as they're safe from the drop and this should be a decent spectacle with both teams going for the win.

We've seen BTTS and over 3.5 goals in three of the last four for the Bees so combining both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks decent here at 6/5 with Betfred.

Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.

Premier League games at Elland Road have been averaging just under 10 this season and we could see a few here with both teams attacking. Bet365 price over 10.5 flag kicks at 11/10.

Leeds have picked up just one card in their last two Premier League games at home so it could pay to back Brentford for most cards at 7/5 with Bet365.

Leeds United vs Brentford Betting Tips & Predictions
BTTS and over 2.5 goals
6/5
Betfred
Over 10.5 corners
11/10
Bet365
Brentford most cards
7/5
Bet365
Further Reading
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