In a week without Champions League and Europa League football, the world will witness the deciding round in the Conference League, and Lausanne host Fiorentina in a clash for the Top 8.
While Strasbourg are the only team in the Conference League that has secured a seat among the final 16, Lausanne and Fiorentina both need to win at all costs if they want to qualify.
The Merry Swiss Boys had a phenomenal start with back-to-back wins, but failed to win any of their last three games in the competition. Fiorentina shared a similar start before their back-to-back defeats, which left them hanging right below the Top 8.
La Viola are in a crisis state, sitting at the bottom of the Serie A table, and with no indications of it changing anytime soon. Fiorentina lost four of their last five competitive fixtures, with their only win being in the Conference League against Dynamo Kyiv (2-1). In fact, it was their only win in their last 11 matches.
Moving on to the next stage could be a turning point for La Viola, and the fact their only away wins this season happened in UCL games should motivate the team to play better.
How the bookies view it: La Viola to shine
While Lausanne are undefeated at home in the competition and Fiorentina are in disarray, bookmakers understand that the experienced Italian side has better chances to win this match.
Therefore, Lausanne are the underdogs at 11/5, while Fiorentina are available at 23/20. You can also back the draw at 5/2.
Recent head-to-head: Another new rivalry will be born
As Lausanne are not a regular in UEFA’s competitions, they have never had the chance to face Fiorentina before this game. Interestingly, the hosts have some history against Italian sides and have never won a match against a club from this country.
On the other end, Fiorentina have a very positive record against Swiss sides, and have never lost an away game in Switzerland.
Players to watch: Kean is a different kind of animal in Europe
Curiously, Moise Kean played in only three of Fiorentina’s seven Conference League matches after suspensions and injuries. But he scored a goal and provided three assists in those three appearances.
Overall, we wouldn’t recommend betting on any players in this matchup, primarily because neither side has an in-form goalscorer at the moment. But if he had to take a pick, we would take advantage of Betano’s 1/1 for Kean to score or assist.
Probable line-ups
Lausanne: Letica, Abdallah, Mouanga, Sow, Fofana, Sigua, Roche, Beloko, Okoh, Bair, Butler-Oyedeji
Fiorentina: De Gea, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Viti, Fortini, Sohm, Caviglia, Mandragora, Dodo, Dzeko, Kean
Anything else catch the eye?
Fiorentina’s horrible of bad performances gives us a bunch of stats to consider ahead of this match. As the team has struggled defensively, La Viola’s matches often feature a solid number of bookings. And with this being the final round, we can expect a lot of cards. Eight of Fiorentina’s last 10 fixtures featured at least five cards.
Next up, Lausanne had three consecutive 0-0 draws in all competitions, which makes it difficult to bet on goals in this match. But Fiorentina haven’t had a clean sheet in 11 consecutive games. We expect both teams to really try and win, so we will back the BTTS market.
As for the three points, we expect Fiorentina to come up with a way to win. Their performances in the UCL have been completely different to what we’ve seen in Serie A and moving forward is their only chance of achieving something in this disastrous campaign.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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