As the echoes of the New Year’s celebration fade away, AC Milan travel to Cagliari for their first assignment of 2026 with ambitions to continue breathing down the neck of their eternal rival at the top of the table.
For yet another year, Serie A has proven to be the most competitive top league, with five teams having roughly equal chances of becoming champions after 17 rounds.
But it is precisely the Milan giants that have been at the center of events in recent weeks, constantly swapping places at the top of the table.
Although AC Milan cannot boast the same scoring form, the fact is that the Rossoneri have not lost in their last 15 Serie A rounds, while Inter have lost four.
The last team to beat Milan in the league was Cremonese in the opening round. Their form as visitors is the only cause for concern, as the Rossoneri have won only four of their nine away games this season, although both of their losses were in cup matches.
Cagliari start the year in no man's land, far from the top but also safe from the drop. The team had a relatively positive December, recording only one loss in Serie A (W2, D1).
There is no doubt that the team's level is significantly lower than Milan's, but there is one big positive to note – Cagliari have scored at least one goal in each of their last seven games, including against Napoli, Roma, and Juventus.
How the bookies view it: The Islanders have low chances of success
The bookmakers quite predictably believe that AC Milan will start the year with a win, given the huge difference in the teams' capabilities.
At the moment, you can back the hosts Cagliari at 5/1, while AC Milan are available at 11/20. Surprises are always possible, of course, and you also have the option to back a draw at 16/5.
Recent head-to-head: Back-to-back draws last season
Almost a decade has passed since Cagliari last celebrated a victory over Milan. For that result, we have to go back to May 2017, when they beat them 2-1 at home.
Since then, Cagliari have gone 15 consecutive games without a win against the Rossoneri, including 11 defeats and four draws. It should be noted, however, that two of those draws came last season, with the same fixture at Unipol Domus ending 3-3.
Players to watch: Nkunku has arrived
Cagliari’s 19 Serie A goals have been scored by 11 different players, making it extremely hard to bet on any player in any game. It is simply not worth the risk.
On AC Milan’s side, on the other hand, we have Christian Pulisic, who scored his 8th Serie A goal against Verona. He remains the safest pick, but we should also highlight Christopher Nkunku.
Four months after arriving from Chelsea for €37.0m, the 28-year-old striker finally scored his first Serie A goals, when he nailed a brace against Verona.
Probable line-ups
Cagliari: Caprile, Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Idrissi, Adopo, Deiola, Palestra, Gaetano, Esposito, Kilicsoy
AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Pulisic, Nkunku
Anything else catch the eye?
As previously mentioned, Cagliari have improved in the final third and have been scoring a lot more goals than in the earlier stages of the campaign. At the same time, AC Milan conceded in four of their last five away games.
We expect both sides to start the year strong, although the Rossoneri have a much better chance of claiming the three points. But the two main goal markets – BTTS & Over 2.5, sound fantastic.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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