Mainz continue to dig themselves deeper and deeper into trouble on all fronts, with their form suggesting they have no chance whatsoever against Bayern Munich, who are in a league of their own this season.
The recent loss to Arsenal, which ended their long unbeaten streak, certainly did not hinder Bayern Munich. On the contrary, it seems to have motivated them to play even stronger. The Bavarians have won their last four matches in all competitions convincingly, scoring 14 goals in the process.
Their home form should definitely be a cause for concern for any opponent, as Bayern have won all 10 of their matches at the Allianz Arena, scoring 3+ goals in nine of them. Their overall goal difference in Munich is 39:6.
On the other side is Mainz, who are literally at the bottom of the table with no indication that this will change in the near future. The 05ers have only one win in the Bundesliga in 13 rounds, including nine losses.
The team has the weakest attack in the league and one of the worst defenses. Their only wins in the last three months have been in the Conference League, where at least they have a chance of some success.
How the bookies view it: Overwhelmingly one-sided
Mainz's terrible form makes it pointless to look for any bet in favor of Bayern Munich, because the odds are almost non-existent.
The only sensible option is to look for an upset, as the draw is priced at 10/1 and Mainz’s win at 20/1. But if you are still interested in Bayern Munich, you can back them at 1/10.
Recent head-to-head: The Bavarians torment the 05ers at every opportunity
Interestingly, Mainz can boast several victories over Bayern Munich in recent years, but each of them was on their home turf. Their performances as guests at the Allianz Arena are the complete opposite, with almost every match ending in a resounding victory with a huge margin for the Bavarians.
Bayern Munich won nine of the last 10 home matches against the 05ers, and scored 2+ goals in all 10. Notably, they scored five goals in 5/10, six goals in three, and eight goals once.
Players to watch: Olise to give the key passes
Harry Kane will always be the obvious pick in Bayern Munich games, and especially against struggling teams like Mainz, who can’t handle him in the final third. But the odds for him to score are extremely low and we need better value.
In these cases, we like to turn our attention to Michael Olise, who is having another phenomenal season and has six goals and eight assists in the Bundesliga. He provided three assists in his last two appearances alone and we like Betano’s odds for him to give an assist against Mainz.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
Probable line-ups
Bayern Munich: Urbig, Laimer, Tah, Kim, Bischof, Goretzka, Kimmich, Olise, Karl, Guerreiro, Kane
Mainz: Batz, Costa, Hanche-Olsen, Leitsch, Veratschnig, Lee, Amiri, Sano, Widmer, Nordin, Weiper
Anything else catch the eye?
Unless Vincent Kompany fields a completely experimental lineup, we expect Bayern to dominate and crush Mainz once again at the Allianz Arena. We even dare to predict at least four goals for Bayern, and it is quite likely that we will see no response from Mainz.
GambleAware