All eyes in the Spanish football world will be on the Copa del Rey final between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad. For Los Colchoneros, this is their first final since 2012/13, while Real Sociedad triumphed in the competition much more recently in 2019/20.
Atletico Madrid’s latest achievements, given their tragic form, are a complete enigma.
The team reached the Copa del Rey final after obliterating Barcelona 4-0 at home. Earlier this week, again against Barcelona, Los Colchoneros qualified for the Champions League semifinals.
They have a chance at two major trophies, yet they’ve lost five of their last six matches. In other words, even if their form is poor, Diego Simeone’s boys play at the highest level when it matters, and you can never underestimate them.
Real Sociedad can boast quite a few more wins over the past two months, but we’re far from saying they’re in consistent form. To reach the final, they played a total of seven matches, eliminating Athletic Bilbao in the semifinals.
Historically, the odds aren’t in their favor, but we mustn’t forget that Atletico have played two additional UCL matches over the past two weeks, and fatigue will likely take its toll.
How the bookies view it: Huge home advantage despite the poor form
Despite Atletico’s form, bookmakers view them as a clear favourite ahead of the Copa del Rey final. The gap in the odds is significant, to the point where it feels like they have underestimated La Real.
You can currently back Atletico Madrid at 3/4, whereas Real Sociedad are available at 31/10. A draw is not out of the question and is available at 13/5.
Recent head-to-head: Los Colchoneros are undefeated since 2022
Atletico and Sociedad have already played their two La Liga fixtures of the season, with Los Colchoneros claiming a home win and a point on the road.
The recent history between the two teams is sure to be a cause for concern for the visitors. Real Sociedad has just one win in their last 10 official matches against Atletico.
What’s important, perhaps, is that this victory came in the Copa del Rey in 2022. However, Los Colchoneros have won six of the nine H2Hs since then (D3).
Players to watch: Griezmann is the Copa del Rey go-to player
Antoine Griezmann is no longer Atletico’s top scorer at 35 years old, but he has been shining in the Copa del Rey this season. In his five matches in the tournament, he has scored five goals, having played 428 minutes out of a possible 450.
The odds on him scoring are not bad at all, with most bookmakers offering around 23/20.
Probable line-ups
Atletico Madrid: Musso, Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Ruggeri, Lookman, Koke, Llorente, Simeone, Griezmann, Alvarez
Real Sociedad: Marrero, Gomez, Elustondo, Martin, Arambuzu, Soler, Turrientes, Mendez, Sucic, Berrenetxea, Oyarzabal
Anything else catch the eye?
This looks like the perfect match for goals, despite it being a final. Both Atletico and Real Sociedad have seen over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in four of their last five matches across all competitions.
We’ve also seen both teams score in their two La Liga matches this season, with the last one ending 3-2.
Atletico Madrid are masters of defensive football, but this season they’ve also shown impressive attacking play. At the same time, their form has been terrible, to say the least, with five losses in six matches. They have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last 10 matches.
We also like the idea of Atletico scoring in the second half. They did so in both matches against Sociedad this season, and Bet365 is offering 3/5 odds on a goal in the second half.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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