Aston Villa v Leeds
Aston Villa

Aston Villa vs Leeds

, KO: 15:00 , Villa Park
Leeds

Aston Villa will be targeting back-to-back home wins in the Premier League when they host Leeds United on Saturday afternoon.

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After suffering a couple of rare home defeats to Everton and Brentford, Villa returned to winning ways in front of their own supporters with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Brighton last midweek.

However, Unai Emery's side have since suffered another setback at home, going down 3-1 to Newcastle in the fourth round of the FA Cup last Saturday.

The Villans now turn their attention back to Premier League matters, aiming to move into joint second with a win – at least temporarily.

As for Leeds, they will be looking to pull further clear of the relegation zone after coming from behind to earn a 2-2 draw at Chelsea in their most recent Premier League outing, in a game that brought up two of my three recommended selections.

Since then, Daniel Farke's side have progressed to the fifth round of the FA Cup, defeating Birmingham City on penalties following a 1-1 draw after extra-time.

How the bookies view it: Villa set for victory

Aston Villa, who have won nine of their 13 Premier League home games this season, come into this clash as 4/5 favourites on bet365.

Five of Leeds' last six Premier League away games have ended in a draw, and another stalemate here can be backed at 5/2 with William Hill, while a Whites' win is trading at 10/3 with the same firm.

Head to head: History favours the hosts

Across their previous 32 meetings, Aston Villa hold the upper hand, with 13 wins to Leeds' 8 and 11 games ending level.

Villa ran out 2-1 victors in the season’s reverse fixture, and the same scoreline in the hosts’ favour here is priced at 17/2 on bet365.

Players to watch: Watkins worth a look

Four of Ollie Watkins' eight Premier League goals this season have arrived in his last eight appearances, making the Aston Villa attacker an attractive option to either score or assist on Saturday at 4/5 on bet365.

Gabriel Gudmundsson has committed exactly two fouls in five of his last seven Premier League appearances, making a repeat at Villa Park on Saturday solid value at 11/8 on bet365.

Predicted line-ups

Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Youri Tielemans are all ruled out through injury for Aston Villa, while backup goalkeeper Marco Bizot misses out through suspension. On a brighter note, Villa are hopeful Matty Cash will return this weekend after missing the last two matches with a knee issue.

Noah Okafor looks set for a spell on the sidelines after being forced off during Leeds' FA Cup clash with Birmingham last weekend. The visitors are also sweating on the fitness of Anton Stach, Daniel James and Pascal Struijk ahead of this weekend’s trip to Villa Park.

Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Onana, Luiz; Sancho, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins

Leeds: Darlow; Rodon, Bijol, Justin; Bogle, Aaronson, Ampadu, Gruev, Gudmundsson; Calvert-Lewin, Nmecha

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Villa 2+ goals

Aston Villa to score 2+ goals is strongly supported by their home profile and Leeds’ defensive numbers on the road. Villa are W9-D1-L3 at home and have won nine of 13 home xG battles, reflecting consistent territorial control.

Across their last four home matches they average 1.49 npxG and concede just 0.46, while allowing only 4.3 shots inside the box per game. That platform enables sustained attacking phases rather than isolated chances.

Leeds struggle defensively away from home. They are W1-D5-L7 on the road and across their last four away fixtures concede 1.55 xGA and allow 9.3 shots inside the box per match. Over the last eight overall they give up 1.67 xGA, showing persistent defensive vulnerability.

Villa’s ability to control territory and Leeds’ tendency to concede high quality chances combine to make two home goals a logical expectation rather than an aggressive projection. .

Anything else catch the eye?

Backing both teams to get on the scoresheet at best odds of 4/5 on Ladbrokes holds plenty of appeal.

This selection would have been the correct call in seven of Leeds' previous eight Premier League away games, including each of their last three.

The case for siding with this selection is strengthened by the fact that both nets have bulged in five of Aston Villa's last eight home games across all competitions.

Aston Villa vs Leeds Betting Tips & Predictions
Both Teams to Score
4/5
Ladbrokes
Ollie Watkins To Score or Assist
4/5
Bet365
Gabriel Gudmundsson To Commit 2+ Fouls
11/8
Bet365
Further Reading
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All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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