Arsenal host Bayer Leverkusen at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night in the Champions League round of 16 second leg with the tie level after the 1-1 draw in Germany.
The first leg produced a tight contest but the underlying numbers favoured Arsenal. The Gunners generated 1.64 xG from six shots with two on target and two big chances, while Leverkusen created 0.85 xG from 10 attempts with three on target and one big chance. Arsenal also controlled possession with 55% and recorded 26 touches in the opposition box compared with nine from the Bundesliga side.
Arsenal enter the match with one of the strongest records in the competition. They finished first in the league phase with eight wins from eight matches, scoring 23 goals and conceding only four. Across nine Champions League games they have produced 24 goals from 21.95 xG with 141 shots and 65 on target.
Chance creation has been a major strength. Arsenal have produced 46 big chances in the competition which places them among the most dangerous attacking sides remaining.
Defensively the Gunners have also been extremely efficient. Opponents have generated only 7.02 xG across nine matches with five goals conceded and a shot value of just 0.07 xG per attempt.
Leverkusen reached the knockout phase after finishing 16th in the league table with three wins, three draws and two defeats. Their attacking numbers stand at 16 goals from 16.13 xG with 123 shots and 45 on target.
History adds context to the tie. Leverkusen have won four of their last five UEFA two legged ties against English teams. Arsenal however have lost only one of their last 22 UEFA matches at the Emirates.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Arsenal are priced at 31/100 in the match winner market, which equates to a 76.19% implied probability of a home victory. The draw is available at 5/1, representing a 16.67% chance, while Bayer Leverkusen are priced at 10/1, implying a 9.09% probability of an away win.
The goals markets suggest expectations of an open contest at the Emirates. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/6, which converts to a 60.00% implied probability of at least three goals in the match.
Both teams to score is available at 6/5, representing a 45.45% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Gunners hold the edge
The two sides met earlier in the tie on 11th March in the Champions League round of 16 first leg. Arsenal secured a 1-1 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen in a closely contested match.
Arsenal produced the stronger attacking numbers in Germany and created the higher quality chances across the game. Leverkusen still generated opportunities of their own and found the net in front of their home support.
The clubs also met in a friendly in August 2024 at the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal recorded a 4-1 victory. Those meetings provide context ahead of the second leg in London.
Players to watch: Saka main threat for Gunners
Bukayo Saka has been a consistent shooting threat for Arsenal in this Champions League campaign and the numbers support interest in him recording 1+ shot on target.
The winger has featured in seven matches and produced 20 shots with 10 on target across 434 minutes. That equals an average of 2.86 attempts per appearance with half of those efforts testing the goalkeeper.
Saka has also delivered two goals and two assists during the competition. His standout display came away at Slavia Prague where he produced six shots with five on target while scoring in the 3-0 victory.
He has also registered shots on target against Olympiacos, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Inter, highlighting his consistent involvement in Arsenal’s attacking play from the right side.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Eze, Martinelli; Gyokeres.
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Blaswich; Quansah, Andrich, Tapsoba; Poku, Palacios, Garcia, Grimaldo; Maza, Tillman; Kofane.
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal look well placed to secure victory at the Emirates and the statistical profile of both sides also points towards a game with cards for each team and at least three total bookings.
The first leg in Germany showed Arsenal creating the better chances. They produced 1.64 xG from six shots and two big chances while Leverkusen generated 0.85 xG from 10 attempts with one big chance. Arsenal also controlled possession with 55% and created 26 touches in the opposition box.
Across the Champions League campaign Arsenal continue to produce strong attacking numbers. They have scored 24 goals from 21.95 xG with 141 shots and 65 on target. Their 46 big chances is also among the highest totals in the competition.
Leverkusen remain capable of scoring but their attacking output sits lower with 16 goals from 16.13 xG and 27 big chances.
Defensively Arsenal hold the edge. Opponents have generated only 7.02 xG across nine matches with five goals conceded and a shot value of 0.07 xG per attempt.
The disciplinary numbers are equally strong. Arsenal have collected 21 cards across nine matches which equals 2.33 per game. Their Champions League fixtures average 4.11 total cards and both teams have been carded in eight of those nine matches.
Leverkusen have received 19 cards across 11 matches and both teams have been carded in seven of those games.
The first leg produced seven bookings. With Danny Makkelie refereeing and both sides regularly collecting cards, Arsenal win, both teams carded and over 2.5 cards all align with the data.
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