AC Milan welcome Inter Milan as the symbolic host of the second Derby della Madonnina of the season, with nothing less than the Serie A title at stake in this match.
Two consecutive mistakes by the Rossoneri in recent rounds allowed Inter to take a 10-point lead before the derby, and a loss here would put an end to any doubts that the Nerazzurri will win the Scudetto.
A win won't change much in terms of their chances, but at least it will give AC Milan more time and motivation to keep fighting.
However, there is cause for concern, as their recent home performances have been well below the level the team should be at, with only two wins in their last five games.
Inter have certainly failed in Europe and have a tough rematch with Como for the cup, but in Serie A, they are absolutely flawless.
We are talking about eight consecutive wins and not a single loss in the last 15 rounds (W14, D1).
On paper, they should have the advantage going into this match, but the fact is that in recent years, they have struggled against their city rivals, even though they have generally been the better team.
How the bookies view it: Inter Milan to end their derby drought
It is never easy for bookmakers to assess this match, but the odds are already available and the visitors have been given a significant advantage.
At the moment, you can back AC Milan at 13/5, while Inter Milan are available at 5/4. The draw is quite lowly priced and looks very promising at 2/1.
Recent head-to-head: AC Milan are unbeaten in six
If you only look at the results of the Derby della Madonnina, you would hardly guess that Inter Milan have been far more successful in recent years.
The Rossoneri have definitely had the upper hand since 2024, going six games unbeaten, winning four of them, including the first derby of this season (0-1).
However, it is worth noting that before the last six matches, Inter had six consecutive wins in the derby, so it is always a difficult match to predict.
Players to watch: Dimarco deserves a new and better contract
We usually try to avoid betting on AC Milan players because there is simply no outstanding striker in the team who can be relied upon.
The situation at Inter is not much different after Lautaro Martinez's injury, but we have Federico Dimarco to compensate with his phenomenal form.
The defender is having the strongest season of his career in every respect, being the best player on the pitch in almost every Inter game. In Serie A alone, he has six goals and 14 assists, and seven of his goal contributions have come in the last five rounds.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
AC Milan: Maignan, Winter, Tomori, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi, Jashari, Ricci, Modric, Athekame, Nkunku, Leao
Inter Milan: Sommer, Bastoni, Akanji, Bisseck, Dimarco, Zielinski, Mkhitaryan, Sucic, Henrique, Thuram, Esposito
Anything else catch the eye?
Every Derby della Madonnina can turn into a goal fest, but in recent seasons, we have rarely witnessed high-scoring clashes.
Given how much is at stake in this match, as well as the lower scoring rate of both teams in recent weeks, we expect to see fewer scoring opportunities.
A draw is quite possible, considering that Inter do not need to win at all costs, and a draw will have almost the same effect on their title chances.
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