Undefeated since the opening round of the campaign, few would bet against AC Milan when they host relegation-threatened Genoa on Thursday evening and attempt to overtake their city rivals in the table.
A single mistake could be devastating in the three-way title race involving AC Milan, Napoli, and Inter Milan, as the three teams are within two points of each other.
Fortunately for the Rossoneri, they have the easiest opponent in this round on paper, although surprises in Serie A are not uncommon.
AC Milan did not allow their failure in the Supercoppa Italiana to affect their form in the league, achieving two wins without conceding a goal in the last 10 days. With these victories, they extended their streak of 16 games without a loss in the league.
Milan are the only team with just one defeat this season, and the main reason they are not the sole leaders in the standings is the large number of draws they have conceded against opponents they should have beaten easily.
Genoa, on the other hand, continue to struggle in the new year, failing to win any of their last four games and sitting just three points above the relegation zone.
Their defense is at the root of all their problems, with only one team conceding more goals than Genoa. It is difficult to expect any success against Milan, because the Griffin have not won a single game against the Top 6 teams this season, with their best result being a single draw with Como.
How the bookies view it: AC Milan with a clean sweep
Bookmakers are unanimous in their expectations that the challenge facing Genoa will be almost insurmountable.
Therefore, the home team's advantage in the odds is significant. Currently, you can back AC Milan at 2/5, while Genoa are available at 13/2. If you decide to go for a draw, you can take advantage of 7/2.
Recent head-to-head: Three consecutive draws at San Siro
Although Milan have generally dominated the rivalry in recent years, there is something to be said for the last few clashes at San Siro. Interestingly, AC Milan's last three home games against Genoa have ended without a winner.
However, Milan have not lost in nine consecutive games against the Griffin, with six wins.
Players to watch: Injuries won't stop Leao
Rafael Leao returned from injury with a winning goal against Cagliari. If the 26-year-old Portuguese player manages to get back to his form from the start of the season, we can expect more goals in the near future.
More importantly, Leao has had quite a positive experience against Genoa, scoring twice in his last five appearances against them, including a goal in last year's 2-1 comeback win.
Probable line-ups
AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi, Pulisic, Leao
Genoa: Leali, Vasquez, Ostigard, Marcandalli, Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Thorsby, Martin, Colombo, Vitinha
Anything else catch the eye?
While Genoa have primarily had defeats this season, they have rarely failed to score in the process. Most of their games have been thrilling, with eight of the last 10 featuring either goals from both sides or at least three goals.
Also, eight of their nine away games this season featured at least three goals. AC Milan have had a few too many 1-0 wins this season for us to feel 100% confident, but Genoa’s defence makes us believe that an Over is a valid pick.
Additionally, we intend to go for an Under on corners, entirely because of the statistical data we found. Only two of Milan’s last 10 fixtures featured more than 10 corners, while only one of Genoa’s 18 Serie A fixtures this season had 11 corners or more. While the odds are not that great, it is a great option.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
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