Midweek extended the National League column’s strong run, with two winners and a refund from our three selections. Boreham Wood covered the Asian handicap against Kidderminster Harriers, while Woking and Solihull Moors produced six goals. Yeovil Town’s 1-1 draw fell one goal short of another winning bet.
We have now won eight of our last 10 bets, taking the overall return from this column to +9.38% ROI.
Saturday provides a full 12-match programme, but the shortlist remains limited to three fixtures with the strongest combination of price, venue performance and current form.
Harrogate Town welcome AFC Hornchurch after returning to winning ways at Hartlepool United. Their home matches have produced goals throughout the season, while Hornchurch’s away defensive record points towards another open contest.
Southend United and AFC Fylde meet in a game involving two of the division’s five highest-scoring sides. Both have shown consistent attacking output, although their midweek results underline the need to look beyond the final score.
The final selection comes from Barrow against Wealdstone. Barrow return home after a controlled victory over Scunthorpe United, while Wealdstone travel after earning a point at Forest Green Rovers.
Recent results provide context, but the selections rely on scoring trends, shots, shots on target, shots inside the box and home and away performance.
Harrogate Town v AFC Hornchurch
Harrogate Town return to Wetherby Road sitting second after collecting 22 points from 11 matches. AFC Hornchurch arrive three places outside the playoff positions, with their opening campaign producing 18 points and a mixed away record.
The hosts responded to consecutive defeats by winning 1-0 at Hartlepool United on Tuesday. Bailey Hobson scored the only goal, with all four Harrogate attempts finding the target. The performance was less dominant than their strongest displays, but the result kept them seven points behind Boreham Wood.
Harrogate’s home numbers provide the basis for the selection. Six matches have produced 17 goals scored and nine conceded, an average of 4.33. Both teams have scored and over 2.5 goals has landed in all six.
Their attacking volume supports those results. Harrogate average 15.5 shots, 7.5 shots on target and 9.8 efforts from inside the box at home. Opponents average only 7.2 attempts, although every visiting side has scored.
Hornchurch have conceded 14 goals across six away matches. They allow 14.3 shots and 6.7 shots on target per trip, while five fixtures have cleared 2.5 goals. They have scored in three, including Tuesday’s 2-1 victory over Aldershot Town.
Hornchurch’s 50% away scoring rate is the main reservation. Harrogate’s failure to keep a home clean sheet and their average of 1.50 goals conceded reduce this concern.
At 21/20, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals follows a pattern present in every Harrogate home fixture.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 21/20 with Bet365
Southend United v AFC Fylde
Two of the National League’s leading attacks meet at Roots Hall, with Southend United third and AFC Fylde fifth after 11 rounds. Southend have scored 26 goals, the second-highest total in the division, while Fylde have found the net 21 times.
Both sides were held back in midweek. Southend drew 1-1 at Eastleigh despite producing 10 shots and four on target. Fylde lost 2-0 at home to Carlisle United, allowing 16 attempts and nine on target while failing to score for the second time this season.
The wider pattern remains strong. Both teams have scored in 10 of Southend’s 11 matches and four of five at Roots Hall. Four home games have also produced at least three goals, with 20 scored across those fixtures.
Southend average 14.4 shots and seven shots on target at home. They allow only 5.6 attempts and three on target, but have still conceded 10 goals. Opponents have converted a high share of limited opportunities.
Fylde provide a route to exploiting this weakness. They average 2.33 goals across six away matches and have scored in five. Both teams have scored and over 2.5 goals has landed in five of those trips.
Their away attack produces only 8.7 shots per game, so the scoring rate includes finishing overperformance. Southend’s defensive results show a similar issue from the opposite direction.
The combination has landed in nine of the teams’ 11 relevant home and away fixtures. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 keeps the focus on two productive attacks without relying on either side to win.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
Barrow v Wealdstone
Barrow return to Holker Street after producing one of their strongest performances of the season. Three second-half goals secured a 3-0 victory over Scunthorpe United on Tuesday, with the hosts winning the shot count 17-7 and placing eight attempts on target.
Wealdstone also collected a useful result in midweek, drawing 1-1 at Forest Green Rovers. Fejiri Okenabirhie opened the scoring before Forest Green equalised, with Wealdstone limited to seven shots and three on target.
The league table leaves three points between the sides, but the venue data creates a larger gap. Barrow have taken nine points from five home games, scoring nine goals and conceding four. Wealdstone have collected eight points from six away fixtures, although their performances have relied on efficiency under pressure.
Barrow average 12.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target at home while allowing 7.8 attempts and 3.4 on target. Their 6.2 shots inside the box compares with four conceded, giving them a consistent territorial advantage.
Wealdstone average 7.3 shots and three on target away. Opponents produce 12.5 attempts, 5.8 on target and 10.2 from inside the box. Those figures leave Wealdstone with a deficit across every main attacking measure.
The visitors have conceded only 1.17 goals per away game despite the volume allowed, so Barrow still need to turn control into goals. Tuesday offered encouragement, with eight shots on target and three different scorers.
Barrow’s home defence, stronger shot profile and improved attacking display support them to win at 5/6.
- Best bet: Barrow to win at 5/6 with Unibet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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