MrFixIt's Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a shorter acca or keep building towards a bigger return.
Sunday's list focuses on the Nations League, Argentina's international against Burkina Faso and Spain's Segunda Division.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Netherlands are the strongest selection against Serbia after producing some of the best attacking numbers across the opening Nations League matches.
The Dutch are averaging 2.96 xG, 23.5 shots, nine shots on target and 5.5 big chances per game. Serbia have faced considerable pressure at the other end, allowing 2.63 xGA, 25.5 shots and 15.5 shots from inside the penalty area.
There is also a substantial difference in the Elo ratings, with Netherlands rated at 1,970 compared with Serbia at 1,687. Netherlands are 2/11, which implies an 84.6% chance of a home victory. The price is short, but the performance gap makes them the starting point.
Argentina take second position against Burkina Faso after a dominant 4-0 victory over Bolivia. Argentina controlled 69% possession and produced 18 shots, six on target and 16 from inside the box. They recorded 49 touches in the opposition penalty area while restricting Bolivia to three shots and none on target.
Burkina Faso won their latest match 1-0 against Central African Republic, but managed only two shots on target from 11 attempts. The difference in Elo ratings is also substantial, with Argentina rated at 2,174 and Burkina Faso at 1,524.
Argentina are 2/9, carrying an implied probability of 81.8%.
Castellon complete the opening treble against AD Ceuta after making an unbeaten start to the Segunda Division season. The leaders have won six of seven matches and collected 19 points, scoring 14 goals and conceding only two. Their underlying performance supports that position. Castellon lead the division with 15.0 xG and 15 xPTS.
Their home record stands at two wins and one draw, with seven goals scored and none conceded. Ceuta are 0-0-3 away, scoring twice and conceding 11. Castellon are 1/4, an implied probability of 80.0%.
Netherlands, Argentina & Castellon all to win at 3/4 with 10Bet
Malta are next against Andorra after producing the stronger performance when these sides met earlier in the Nations League. Malta generated 3.48 xG in that match, registering eight shots on target and creating seven big chances on their way to a 2-1 victory.
The wider strength ratings also favour the hosts. Malta have an Elo rating of 1,257 compared with Andorra's 1,062, a difference of 195 points. Malta are available at 8/11, which implies a 57.9% chance of victory.
Netherlands, Argentina, Castellon & Malta all to win at 2/1 with Coral
Austria provide the first odds-against selection for their trip to Kosovo. Their Nations League performances have been strong, averaging 2.31 xG while allowing only 0.80 xGA. Austria have produced 15 shots, 7.5 shots on target and 4.5 big chances per match while allowing only 5.5 attempts.
Kosovo have also performed well and average 2.07 xG, so this represents a significant increase in risk compared with the opening four selections. Austria hold another advantage in the Elo ratings, sitting at 1,843 compared with Kosovo's 1,708. Odds of 23/20 imply a 46.5% chance of an away victory.
Netherlands, Argentina, Castellon, Malta & Austria all to win at 8/1 with Coral
Republic of Ireland are next against Israel at 11/10. Ireland's own underlying numbers have been mixed, averaging 0.99 xG while allowing 1.53 xGA, but Israel have produced considerably weaker figures. Israel average only 0.26 xG while allowing 2.25 xGA.
They have created 0.5 big chances per game while conceding an average of five, leaving a clear underlying weakness despite Ireland's own limitations. Ireland also hold a 104-point Elo advantage, with a rating of 1,717 compared with Israel's 1,613.
Netherlands, Argentina, Castellon, Malta, Austria & Republic of Ireland all to win at 19/1 with Coral
Denmark move into seventh position for their trip to Wales. Wales have failed to score across their opening two Nations League matches and average only 0.74 xG. They have produced 7.5 shots and two shots on target per game.
Denmark's attacking numbers are stronger, with 1.24 xG and 16.5 shots per match. The Elo ratings also produce a clear gap, with Denmark rated at 1,844 compared with Wales at 1,698.
Netherlands, Argentina, Castellon, Malta, Austria, Republic of Ireland & Denmark all to win at 38/1 with Coral
Portugal are next against Norway, but this is where the underlying data makes the accumulator more difficult. Portugal hold the advantage in the Elo ratings at 2,047 compared with Norway's 1,908 and have home advantage. Their Nations League numbers are less convincing, averaging 1.49 xG while allowing 1.69 xGA.
Norway have produced the stronger underlying return at 1.97 xG and 1.07 xGA. That prevents Portugal from ranking alongside the stronger selections despite their status as 4/6 favourites.
The price implies a 60.0% chance of a home victory. Portugal's home advantage and overall strength support their inclusion, but Norway's performance data makes this a clear stopping point for anyone unwilling to accept the additional risk.
Netherlands, Argentina, Castellon, Malta, Austria, Republic of Ireland, Denmark & Portugal all to win at 63/1 with Coral
Azerbaijan are the final and highest-risk selection against Lithuania. There is little between the teams in the Elo ratings, with Azerbaijan at 1,313 and Lithuania at 1,291. The Nations League data also provides reasons for caution.
Azerbaijan average 0.83 xG while allowing 1.26 xGA. Lithuania have produced 1.44 xG and allowed only 0.46 xGA, giving the visitors the stronger underlying performance across the opening matches.
Netherlands, Argentina, Castellon, Malta, Austria, Republic of Ireland, Denmark, Portugal & Azerbaijan all to win at 143/1 with Coral
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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