Class 6 racing happened again at Musselburgh.
By that I mean the fancied horse (Amber Hamur) was defeated by two much higher-priced horses, with a 22/1 horse in second place, which cements my opinion of poor-quality racing.
Fast Fred had no excuses in his race, which I can handle all day long. He returned us a small amount of profit, and he was positioned in the best possible position. It's hard to say that he didn't stay the trip, because he was plugging along at the finish; he is just in the grips of the handicapper. The race was won by Jim Goldie's fourth string, which is always a laugh.
Cloud Forest 6/1 (EW, 4pl) – Newbury 6.30
I wasn't sold on the favourite for this race; she is progressive and isn't short odds, but this is a big step up in competition. Over the years, I've seen Saeed bin Suroor win plenty of races like this with four-year-olds against the younger horses, and they often get overlooked.
Cloud Forest is a very interesting candidate for today's race, but will likely drift in the market due to him being 10st and conceding weight to the majority of the horses. Saeed is the master of placing horses like this; his record with four-year-olds this year is 3/8, with a further two being placed.
Not only is the age factor a big thing for me when backing Cloud Forest, but he's also making his handicap debut and is dropping in trip, which isn't something you usually see. Normally, when a horse makes their handicap debut, they are upped in trip after running over inadequate trips, with Sir Mark Prescott being a huge advocate.
Cloud Forest hasn't disgraced himself in his three qualifying runs over 1m 2f and slightly further, but his pedigree will always point towards a drop in trip. He is by Blue Point and out of a mare who ran the most of her career over seven furlongs, so this trip of a mile is worth a shot.
He is currently 6/1, and that seems a fair enough price, but I do believe that he'll drift out slightly.
Lion Of Mali 5/2 – Newbury 7.00
You'll struggle to find a more consistent horse on Wednesday than Lion Of Mali; he has been running well all season apart from one run at Haydock, which came on soft ground.
Last time out at Newmarket, I thought he ran a very promising race. He was held up towards the rear, and the race benefitted those who were close to the pace, which included the winner. The winner made the running and didn't see another horse, but only beat Lion Of Mali by 1.75L. Given that the money was down for him last time out, and that he ran such a great race when the odds were against him from where he was positioned, I think he is the one to beat today.
I tipped up a runner from this yard on the weekend; she didn't win, but the yard has still been in great form in recent weeks.
GambleAware