Cairnzy's sole runner on Monday was underwhelming at Southwell.
He remained strong in the market, but wasn't helped by a slow start and then running green in the final couple of furlongs. It will probably work out to be a solid novice, so when he enters handicaps and becomes more mature, that'll be the time to re-back him.
Witness Stand 13/2 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Goodwood 3.00
On all accounts, Lake Forest is the best horse in this race. When he gets the race run to suit, he is a Group 1 calibre horse. However, as we've seen in this race before, he doesn't always fire.
Qirat will have his followers, as he is 3/3 at the track and won the Group 1 Sussex Stakes last year. Obviously, that was a fluke at 150/1, and they disrespected him as a pacemaker, but people will latch onto him for his course record. If he was around 9/2, I'd say that would have been a bet, but he is shorter, and I thought Witness Stand offered more value.
Witness Stand isn't unbeaten at this track, but he has won twice at Glorious Goodwood in the past, including in this race last year. Similarly to Lake Forest, when he's on a good day, he's a very good horse. He's not a Group 1 performer, but he is a solid Group 2 horse. At the prices, I thought he was the obvious pick.
Witness Stand was behind Qirat when the pair met at this track as three-year-olds. There was only a length which separated them, but Witness Stand conceded 13lbs to Qirat that day. Obviously, you can't read too much into that as years have passed, but with them running off level weights today, it does sway me further in the favour of Witness Stand.
I tipped him up last time at Chester, and the young jockey gave him a stinker. This horse races prominently, and the jockey held him up and then had him four wide. If you focus on his run before that, when he was second to Ten Bob Tony (now Group 1 winner), he has every chance in this race.
Gold Digger 9/1 (0.5pt EW, 5pl) – Goodwood 5.55
I'm trying to stay away from large fields, even at the big festivals, but when I believe I can see value, I'll play.
In my opinion, Gold Digger is overpriced at 9/1. She has only raced five times, and it seems like doubt is already creeping in. You've got to look at the broader picture when it comes to her form, and I don't think we've seen anything like her best just yet.
She ran well on both of her runs as a juvenile, finishing 6th/17 in a Group 3 behind Venetian Sun. We didn't see her for the rest of the season, but she won on her return at odds of 1/5F, before heading to Royal Ascot. She was well-supported in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse, going off at 9/2. In hindsight, nothing was going to beat the winner that day; that horse was a rocket, but I think you can say she ran well in the circumstances. There was a huge bias at Ascot that day, and even though she raced down the middle, it was far from the best place to run.
On her last start, she raced in a Group 3 against the older horses, and things didn't look right from the start. This is a big drop in grade from her two previous runs, and I think her class might shine through.
GambleAware