Galopin Des Champs simply isn't the force of old. I thought he was worth a chance after his opening run, but on the back of that effort, his time at the very top looks to be over.
His jumping wasn't great. He got over the fences with no problem, but he was ponderous and skied a few of his fences. He was comfortably beaten by Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior. Given how much Gaelic Warrior pulled, I'd have liked to have seen Galopin finish a lot closer to him, specifically.
Ignore The Door jumped well on his chasing debut, but was outclassed in a tough race for the grade. I think he'll win races over fences, and I would be happy enough to back him again.
Celestial Fashion 9/4 (1pt) – Carlisle 3.05
I was on the receiving end of Celestial Fashion's most recent win at Wetherby, and I was taken with how easily she managed to win.
She is 2/6 over fences, with a further three finishes as runner-up, showing how consistent she is. She has won two of her last three runs with a lot of ease, and the only blemish outside the top four came over 3m. That trip clearly isn't the trip for her, as she has a good cruising speed.
Today's slightly longer trip of 2m 5f should be fine for her. She has won over 2m 4f, and her win over 2m 3f left no impression that she won't be fine over two furlongs more.
My main concern for her is the ground, as her wins have come on soft ground. Carlisle is going to be good-to-soft, and probably quicker as they are expecting no further rain. She has won on good-to-soft in the past when she was over hurdles, so it's not like she is fully ground dependent.
Captain Boudet 10/3 (1pt) – Taunton 3.45
Despite this race only being a four-runner field, it's a competitive affair, and a chance is given to every horse lining up.
Brave Kingdom has the best form from a couple of years ago, but he is now a ten-year-old and has been pulled up on his last two runs. Royal Jewel has been in much better form, but isn't assured to enjoy this trip and ground combination.
As a result, I am willing to chance Captain Boudet, who enjoys the conditions and will be running off a much lower weight compared to his rivals.
Chad Bament is taking the ride from Lorcan Williams, and I think that's based on how low Captain Boudet will be racing off with the 7lb claimer in the saddle. He'll have 17lbs lighter than Venetia's horse, and a 25lbs less than Royal Jewel and Brave Kingdom.
GambleAware