Apologies for not being able to post over the last couple of days. I've been ill, and when I've been able to do stuff, I've been busy.
Thanks to Cairnzy for filling in on late notice. His Saturday selections were all non-runners due to the DRF Saturday meeting being called off, and his Sunday runner was a runner-up in the National race at Musselburgh.
The DRF meeting continues on Monday, with this being the meeting which was meant to be done on Saturday.
Ignore The Door 8/1 (1pt) – Kempton 1.27
Harry Derham hasn't been in the type of form we have been used to, but it has started to pick up again in recent weeks. Harry has done well with his novice chasers, especially on their chasing debuts, so I am giving a chance to Ignore The Door.
Harry has two in this race, but Paul O'Brien (stable jockey) has opted to ride Ignore The Door over Il Va De Soi, who is rated 119 and is still unexposed as a chaser. That is very positive, as the stablemate was running a big race until falling late on, so they must firmly believe Ignore The Door is ahead of the handicapper.
Outside of the DRF, Kempton has some okay handicaps for a Monday, which is always great to see. This race in particular is definitely better than a 0-120, and I think many will be capable of holding their own in higher graded races, so this won't be an easy race for Ignore The Door.
My selection was a winner over hurdles, winning once from his three attempts. They haven't wasted any time in getting him over fences, with this being his fourth career run, and his handicap debut, which is always a betting angle I like to get stuck into.
Galopin Des Champs 13/8 (1pt) – Leopardstown 3.30
I think it is very easy to jump ship and ignore Galopin Des Champs after he finished third in the Savills Chase at Christmas, but I thought he ran well and will come on for the run.
There's not much to read into Galopin not winning first time out. That has been the third year in a row that this has happened, yet he has gone on to win Multiple Grade 1s throughout the season, in every one of those years, he was defeated first time out.
It's hard to tell if he's the same horse of old. The safe money would suggest that he isn't, due to his age and the wear and tear of his career. Not many horses win two Gold Cups, and not many have the length of success like Galopin has had, so time will catch up to him as some stage.
With what we know, I think 13/8 is a fair price, and you can get 15/8 elsewhere. Gaelic Warrior is a horse I backed over Christmas, and should have won. He isn't at his best at Leopardstown, so if you're going to go against him, today is that day.
GambleAware