I think we were very lucky that a couple of the horses in Guard Duty's race were non-runners, as he didn't put in a great performance.
He jumped horrifically, but he has the engine on soft ground to make up for the mistakes he made against a weak field.
Mulinas was weak in the market, held up and left the impression he desperately needed the run. I do think he'll be much better than what we saw. It was always a risk with a huge layoff, but he had strong PTP form, so I thought it was worth a chance.
Javert Allen 7/1 (1pt) – Cheltenham 1.15
It's a risk to go with Javert Allen, as he is trying this trip for the first time. If he stays the trip, he is in with a superb chance at the bottom of the weights.
Javert Allen has run well on both of his starts this season. He was in need of the run at Aintree when finishing behind Mambonumberfive.
The form of the Aintree race has been franked by every horse that finished ahead of Javert Allen. The winner is now a Grade 2 winner. The runner-up has gone close a couple of times since and won last time out. The third won a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in December, and the fifth has won three times since.
Last time out, Javert Allen finished second to Ryan's Rocket in a decent Newbury handicap. The winner travelled like a much-improved horse and was fancied to beat the progressive Thistle Ask last time out, but he was a faller halfway around.
In this race, you have last year's winner (Moon d'Orange), who is on a good handicap mark, but he scrambled home last year under Sean Bowen. I don't think he's consistent enough to have faith in him. Jagwar won at the Festival last year, but looking at the results of the horses in that race, the form doesn't look great. I didn't think many looked like they were on good marks, so I was willing to chance Javert Allen over this trip.
Dartmoor Pirate 9/1 (1pt) – Doncaster 2.05
The Great Yorkshire Chase is always a great race to watch and have a bet in. You can find some great value in races like this, and I think Dartmoor Pirate is the one to be on.
It's painful to leave New Order, who I tipped up last time out and thought he would've won with a better ride. The main reason for jumping ship is that he is a front-runner, but there are a couple of others in this race who will try to run from the front.
Dartmoor Pirate was quietly backed in at Lingfield last time out. I had the runner-up in a Lucky 15 bet, and I didn't give Dartmoor Pirate a chance, but he proved me wrong by romping home.
The ground is going to be very testing, which is an unknown for Dartmoor Pirate, but being by Black Sam Bellamy,I expect him to relish the conditions.
Karuma Grey 8/1 (1pt) – Uttoxeter 2.32
There is a chance that Karuma Grey was flattered to be second to Itseemslikeit at Ffos Las over 3m, but he did win at 100/1 for his previous trainer on heavy ground in 2024.
This is Debra Hamer's first ever runner at Uttoxeter, and I think they have been searching for a local track with heavy ground. Uttoxeter isn't extremely local, but given that she is based in South Wales, there are close tracks to pick from.
He has gone up 1lb for his recent second, which looks quite lenient, as I think the winner was on a good mark.
The drop in trip should be highly beneficial as he won over 2m 5f, and he got outstayed by the progressive winner last time out. He is good odds, and I think he'll be half his odds at the time of the race.
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