Friday’s Racing Tips – Guard Duty should be too good now that he is back on soft ground

Apologies for the tip on Wor Lad, that is up there with the worst tip I've ever posted, especially one which was fancied in the market.

He didn't show anything like he showed on his handicap debut. He looked tired and in need of the run last time out, but today was atrocious.

The commentator mentioned that he didn't go down to the start with much enthusiasm, and he ran like that. He was off the bridle jumping the second hurdle, and it seems like he didn't fancy racing today.

Taxus Baccata put in a solid effort on her first start for new connections, but was tired towards the end. Her jumping was patchy, and the jockey had her all over the place in the final straight, but it didn't make a difference.

Mulinas 7/1 (1pt) – Doncaster 12.45

This maiden race looks to be a very tough race on paper. At least four horses come into this with good form, which makes it a tough task for Mulinas on his hurdling debut, but his PTP form gives him a shout.

Paul Nicholls' yard is very out of form, but they have had quite a lot of horses placed this month, so maybe it's not as bad as his record suggests.

I know that Paul used to give the jab to his horses in January; whether that is still a thing, I'm not sure. If it is, then the lack of winners isn't a surprise, as it generally is one of the months where he takes a hit in winners. We are now towards the end of the month, so the jab won't be an issue for his stable, and I think if Mulinas is fit enough from a 647-day absence, he is being overlooked.

He was a PTP winner, beating Potters Charm into second place. The runner-up has franked the form massively since moving to hurdles, as has the fourth-placed horse, who is 137-rated for Willie Mullins.

Guard Duty 11/8 (2pt) – Doncaster 2.15

I was expecting Guard Duty to be the early market favourite, but didn't expect him to be as short as his opening odds are. By the time this comes out, I hope he drifts.

Emma Lavelle's nine-year-old is a lightly raced horse for his age, and looks best on soft ground. He has recorded all of his wins on soft ground, and his form of this year makes him a tough horse to beat in this contest.

The second to French Ship on his seasonal return at Newbury in a Class 2 looks very solid. Last time out, he ran respectably in another Class 2, and that came on unfavoured good ground.

With a return to a tested surface and on the same mark as last time around, he has to be the one to beat in a weaker race.

There are three horses over the age of ten in this, and the younger horses have something to prove against horses like Guard Duty, who has very good form. The bottom weight is probably the main danger, as the second to Fasol is good.

The Two Harrys 7/1 (1pt) – Doncaster 4.00

Like Paul Nicholls, his ex-boss, Harry Derham is going through a poor patch of form. He has had a winner in the last fortnight and has had a couple go close, so I don't think there's anything to worry about.

The Two Harrys is going up to three miles for his handicap debut in a competitive Class 4 race. I don't think the handicapper has done him any favours by giving him an opening mark of 108, but I do think he can be competitive off it.

The step up in trip should suit, and I think he is being slightly overlooked in the market.

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