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Friday’s Nap didn’t quite cut it, with Calanthe coming into the race relatively well before flattening out rather rapidly. Moving on.
| Wincanton - 12:23 |
Thunder N Lightnin |
20/1 |
The best day of the week in terms of quality is upon us, and ahead of Saturday’s racing, I’m interested in the opener at Wincanton, where Thunder N Lightnin looks like a nice bet at chunky odds.
Let’s face it, this is a maiden, so experience is in short supply, meaning that any result is possible, but at early odds of 20/1, I really do like the look of Thunder N Lightnin, whose first three runs haven’t been without promise.
Harry Derham’s runner ran respectably on debut back in November 2023, finishing not far away from a few horses that have since gone on to be very useful indeed, while he followed up with a pleasing second at Taunton, again getting fairly close to a decent type. A recent spin at Kempton, where he returned to the track after a 317-day break, should have blown away the cobwebs, so don't be too surprised if he delivers a promising effort here, especially with his yard firing right now.
Not to be discounted for in-form trainer who likes Wincanton
If we’re being honest, even without the positive trainer stuff below, this horse has probably done enough to be much shorter than 20/1.
On debut, he finished only a length behind Menaggio, who has since gone on to earn a rating of 118 over hurdles and 126 over fences. On his second start, he finished runner-up (beaten just over a length) behind Centara, who has won again since and is now a 111-rated animal. This form looks decent.
It’s also worth noting that Harry Derham isn’t just in strong form, winning with 37.5% of his runners in the last fortnight, but also has an encouraging record at Wincanton, where his last 21 runners have returned seven winners and a further three places. In the last year, he also boasts a 29% strike rate at the Somerset venue.
More positive still is the fact that Derham has used the claim of Alice Stevens to excellent effect in recent times. In the last year, the pair have delivered a 35% strike rate when teaming up.
Ultimately, there are a few too many positives here for 20/1 to be considered anything other than too big. Those looking for value ahead of Saturday’s card should consider taking such a price.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 79 Naps) has a running P/L of +£85.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
In December 2020 we sadly 
Khrisma 12-05 sandown 11-8 bet365.
If this jumps only reasonably well she should be more like 8-15 and not 11-8.
Been more than competitive in french graded arab races and nh bumpers.
Nicky Henderson and JP McManus have her earmarked for the mates novice at the festival for which she is about 12-1 which is short enough for a horse with no hurdling experience.
If she wins we’ll expect that 12-1 to drop radically
Ostrava du berlais 12-40 sandown 9-4 bet365
Improved since wind surgery and the switch to fences and gets weight off the others with the jump in class
Jupiter du gite 1-50 sandown
23-20 top 3 finish bet365 ( best elsewhere EVENS at HILLS) NAP 🏇
Chambard 3-00 sandown 16-1 ew 4 places SKYBET
Sorry wrong thread ☹️