Toyotomi 5/1 – Ayr 2.30
I did put up Toyotomi on the website as a tip when he was meant to run at Haydock; he didn't run that day due to being off his feed. He has since run in a Curragh handicap, where he didn't cover himself in glory, but I get the impression this meeting has always been at the forefront.
He ran in the Ayr Gold Cup last year, and didn't run a great race in that. However, he was rated 102 that day, and his handicap mark has collapsed since, which is why they are running in the Silver Cup instead. He is a lover of soft ground, shown by three of his wins coming with soft in the description, and I think he'll handle these conditions better than most.
If the Bronze Cup showed a potential bias, the low draws will have the advantage, and he is drawn in stall 4.
Jolivette 3/1 – Newbury 2.12
The obvious candidate for this race is the favourite Arapaho Gold, who has done nothing wrong this season, winning on all four starts. He has won two Class 1 races and is the highest-rated horse in this race. However, he is 10/11 and is carrying a penalty, so I think he could be vulnerable.
Considering Arapaho Gold has already beaten Nabati, and Nabati flopped last time, Jolivette seemed like the only choice. She has improved on every start for Andrew Balding, and she is related to Jonquil, who was a Mill Reef winner and was better as a three-year-old. Given that Jolivette has shown a solid level of form at an early age, she can continue to improve for a yard that can't do much wrong this year.
Abundant 15/8 – Newbury 4.30
Abundant put in a career-best performance last time out when running over today's course and distance, and his win was impressive enough to believe he can win a second race in a row off a 5lb higher handicap mark.
He is still a lightly raced horse, and the money was down for him last time out, so Tom Ward's yard must've had a strong feeling he was much better than what we've previously seen from him. This won't be an easy race, as he is bumping into some solid horses, but I think there's further progression to come.
Star Performer 15/8 – Gowran Park 3.50
I don't have a good track record when giving a chance to a horse stepping up in class, but I think Faiyum is vulnerable to an improver.
Star Performer is unbeaten from her first two starts, and recorded an RPR of 104 on her latest start, which came over today's course and distance. This is another jump up in class, but she is trained by Joseph O'Brien, who has had his best flat season to memory, and she is owned by powerful connections.
She made easy work of the Listed race last time out, winning by over four lengths, so at least we know she is a Class 1 horse. She gets weight from the favourite due to her age, and who knows how good she might be.
GambleAware